http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Charts.html

The Etdprog.exe earthquake forecasting computer program compares EM Signals with more than 50,000 earthquakes in its database file. They go from the present to the beginning of 1990 and have magnitudes going from 9.9 down to around 2.

Several of the new picture files on the Year Charts Web page show what the Year Charts can look like when the Etdprog.exe program is told to use specific magnitude ranges in the database file when the Year Charts are generated. Normally the entire range of magnitudes is used. The new research picture files show what the Year Charts look like when earthquakes in the 5 and higher, 5.5, 6, and 6.5 and higher magnitude ranges are used.

The data show that there can be substantial changes in the appearance of the Year Charts when various magnitude ranges are used. So, determining what the best magnitude range would be for this work is one of the goals of this forecasting research effort.

EARTHQUAKES CAN BE PREDICTED

It is my opinion that the Year Charts provide clear evidence that a good percentage of our significant earthquakes can be predicted. For example, the following chart has been added to the Year Charts Web page to help explain what the different types of data on the Year Charts represent.

Ear Tones represent one type of earthquake precursor EM Signal. And one of the goals of this research effort is to determine how effective those particular precursors might be for use in a global forecasting program, in comparison with other types of EM Signals.

If the probability calculations being presently used by the Etdprog.exe program were perfect then we would expect to see those types of line peaks appearing before a high percentage of our most powerful earthquakes. However, as the Year Chart data show, that is not always the case.

Instead, what can be seen on the above chart are what are referred to as “Transition” events. With them, line peak groups can appear at some longitude a few weeks or months before a powerful earthquake and then disappear a few weeks or months after it occurs. But they will be at longitudes other than where the earthquake occurred.

The fact that those transitions are taking place in harmony with, before and after very powerful earthquakes indicates that the EM Signals being generated around that time are actually indicating that the earthquake is approaching. The Etdprog.exe program is simply pointing to the wrong location.

On possible reason for that could be that the probability equations the Etdprog.exe program uses need to be improved. And that is quite likely. The program presently treats earthquakes occurring everywhere the same. In reality, ones occurring in different types of fault zones, and fault zones running north and south versus east and west, and ones at different depths should probably be processed in different ways. Determining if that is the case is one of the goals of this effort.

Another reason for the longitude peaks to be at the wrong locations could be associated with strain transfer.

When a fault zone at a specific location is highly strained because a powerful earthquake is approaching, for any number of reasons, that particular fault zone might not be generating any EM Signals. Instead, some tectonic plate that it is on the edge of is being stretched, compressed, or twisted in various directions. And as a consequence the rock layers in a fault zone located elsewhere along the edge of the plate are being stressed temporarily by transferred strain. And they are the ones generating the EM Signals. The Etdprog.exe might then be accurately identifying the location where the EM Signals are originating. But it is not where the actual earthquake will occur.

Present theories being tested are that the rock layers in the fault zones might not be actually be generating the EM Signals. Instead the signals are resulting from interactions between the Earth’s geomagnetic energy field and the fault zone rock layers when they are being stressed by the approaching earthquake. Exactly what that EM Signal generation mechanism is would be another goal of this research effort.

The Year Charts are probably showing that these EM Signals can be used as a type of X-ray that can let us see what is taking place in the Earth’s crust at locations around the world. By studying the Year Charts you can see that there will be line peaks at certain longitudes for a while. And over time the locations of the line peaks will gradually shift to the east or the west. That could be an indicator that strain is concentrating in different parts of the fault zone over time.

The EM Signals appear to be invaluable indicators that significant earthquakes could be approaching. But because the longitudes that the Etdprog.exe points to for different earthquakes is not always accurate, with the forecasting part of this effort what I tell people is that when it appears that an earthquake might be about to occur, they should check their area for other precursors such as large, fresh cracks in building foundations. If none can be observed then the expected earthquake will probably occur elsewhere.

ONE REASON WHY EARTHQUAKES ARE NOT BEING PREDICTED

So, if this forecasting technology does work, why isn’t it in use by governments around the world?

That is a complex question that in my opinion involves government and international scientific community politics. And it is about the same answer as why Shan’s sun shadow based forecasting method is not in use around the world.

Part of the answer is that there are a number of individuals, groups, and even governments around the world that are attempting to develop earthquake forecasting technology. But there are no organized groups or governments that I am aware of that are actually looking around to see if any other groups etc. might have developed some other type of program that works. From a distance this research looks like a piece of Swiss Cheese. There are many dots of activity that have no connection with any of the other dots.