Formal Definition of a Scientifically Meaningful Prediction

A scientifically meaningful earthquake prediction must contain the following criteria:

1. Specific time window.
2. Specific magnitude or magnitude range.
3. Specific area.

A prediction may also contain supplemental information:

1. A physical basis for the prediction.
2. Comments

I'll leave it up to others how to evaluate a prediction as it is something that eqpr.org will not be doing, but my feeling is the success of a prediction is based on 4 criteria:

1. Determination if a candidate earthquake occurred within the predicted time window.
2. Determination if a candidate earthquake occurred within the predicted magnitude range.
3. Determination if a candidate earthquake occurred within the predicted area.
4. Estimate of probability compared to random chance.

A Forecast does not require the same accuracy, rather the term refers to prognostications on a longer time scale that are usually probabilistic. Any prediction that includes a probability is not a prediction, but rather a forecast, something that eqpr.org does not handle.

Comments welcome!

Michael