When I look at the attempts made or those not attempted in regarding to earthquake prediction, I see a lot of missed opportunities. Failure to predict looms large, but I wonder what it takes to break the spell. In regard to the VAN group, they've had their hits and misses, but no matter, they are in a way making the road for those who will follow behind, most likely with more success.

I have given pause to wonder if behind closed doors or in small close circles some of our scientists are talking to each other about what they think is about to happen. Then I wonder if a time has ever come when a scientist has said to his wife, children, and friends that something could possibly happen and give them a little warning.

When I feel something coming here I call a few people and tell them to put away their cherished things. I know one woman who has much statuary of the biblical kind and I don't want her baby Jesus to fall and break, so I call her. No one thinks much of it, they say thank you and tell me they're glad I called. In the fire dept there is someone special who totally believes in my ability to hear ear tones and told me more than once, if I hear one for this area to call him to he can move the trucks out of the bays.

I know it's a lot to ask of any seismologist to take the walk down the road of the unknown and risk his/her career on the chance that some one single person might live, or live in one piece. Today, I don't know anyone from the science community I think who has the skill to do this, but there are a couple of them I know who have very good people skills who could communicate a "forecast" and have the public accept the method of delivery.

Today I can't visualize a way to ask enough people if they would like to have earthquake forecasts, or earthquake prediction. It takes a lot of heavy media to do the survey on this one. But I think it would be terrific if we knew.

Dennis, reading your words I think conveys the obvious. When looking at prediction, its not looked at in the sense of what is right, but what's wrong with it and how tight it has to be to be considered a hit. I can see Alan's point that a person can predict for instance 12 quakes and miss 12. But, what was it that made the 12 successful predictions? How did those come about? In everyday life, we are taught to think in a negative sense and it affects everything.

So in finality I say, build on what works and toss out what doesn't. Learn the strong points and go with them. Look to help each other have more success and do less in stressing one's lack thereof. A "can do" attitude makes all the difference in the world. Do people want prediction? Do we need it? Should we demand that we have it? Is it up to us to say to the science community, "go ahead, we know it won't be easy, but please try, we need you."

Petra