Hi Don,

You wrote:
As to getting 12 right and 12 wrong can you answer me this. Will the next prediction be right, or will it be wrong? How many wrongs will the public except before they no longer listen to what they feel may be a false alarm?

To which I reply:
Which kind of wrong are we talking about? Nothing happening at all or something close but not exactly right. For instance, say somebody predicts an M6.0 +/- .5 within 50 miles of Oakland in the next 3 days. What hit was an M6.9 within 25 miles of Oakland on day 2. Technically the prediction was wrong, but was that predictor really wrong?