As promised we have received the far-field aftershock potentials from the great
earthquake in Peru. The most interesting likely events appear to be in the aftershock
zone with a strong potential for another large event and in the region of Northern
Peru-Ecuador. I will leave the rest to you.

FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCK FORECAST FROM SOUTHERN PERU QUAKE (MW~7.9)
23 JUNE 01

A large earthquake and aftershocks hit the region of southern
Peru this afternoon (June 23, 2001). This earthquake probably
had Mw>>7. At least one aftershock in the Mb>6 range has been reported
thus far. It appears to be the largest earthquake within 250 km
of it's epicenter since 1988 when a Mw 7.6 occurred south of the
current epicenter and the largest shallow earthquake since 1942.

The epicenter was near the origin of the total solar eclipse on 21 June 2001.

The initial parameters (NEIS) for this event and aftershock are:

O: 23JUN2001 20:33:16 15.9S 73.4W MW=7.9 NEIA SOUTHERN PERU
O: 23JUN2001 21:27:46 15.9S 73.6W Mb=6.2 NEIA SOUTHERN PERU

Initial reports (NEIS) put the magnitude at Mw 7.9.

Initial damage and casualty reports can be found at:
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/US/reuters20010623_193.html

SOLAR ECLIPSE RELATIONSHIP

The earthquake occurred near the location on the earth where the total
eclipse of the sun began on 21 June. NASA gives this as:
BOLIVIA
Cochabamba 17S24' 66W09'
but a significant partial eclipse would have been visible in
Southern Peru.

For eclipse locations see:
http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/eclipse/010621/tables/table_9.html
For further details on the earthquake see:
http://cns.igp.gob.pe/net_main.htm
or
http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.html
or
http://www.emsc-csem.org/cgi-bin/ALERT_all_messages.sh?1

Seismograms are located at:
http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.htm

Seismicity is expected to increase in areas where seismic energy
from the great shocks is concentrated due to internal reflections
and refractions of waves off internal boundaries. Following are the
locations and distances where this is expected to occur. Because
of the large magntitude of these events, far-field triggering is
expected to continue for at least 10 days - i.e. the forecast and
seismic alert for these areas is in effect through 03 July, 2001.
Since it has been more than 50 years since the last event of
this size in the region and the area has a history of large
aftershocks, a second event of Mw>=7 is highly likely within
the next 10 days within 200 km of this epicenter. The area should
be on high seismic alert throughout this time.
Seismicity is expected to increase in the following areas.

OBSERVED EVENTS FOLLOWING PREVIOUS LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHERN PERU:
First line is location and time of an event within 250 km of today's earthquake with Mw>=7
M D HR M S YEAR S LAT W LONG DEPTH MAG
Lines following starting with --> are events occurring after the mainshock elsewhere
in the world.
Date LAT LONG MAG LOCATION

7 2 10 30 0 1552 -16.600 -71.300 30 7.6
No events reported within 10 days

1 22 16 30 0 1582 -16.600 -71.600 30 8.2
No events reported within 10 days

2 19 10 0 0 1600 -16.770 -70.900 20 7.9
2 28 20 0 0 1600 -16.600 -70.800 20 8.1
Major aftershock Feb 19, 1600 (Mw 7.9)

11 24 0 0 0 1604 -16.500 -71.500 0 8.5
No events reported within 10 days

10 21 12 0 0 1687 -16.400 -71.600 60 7.2

--> 11-22-1687 1S 78W Mw 7.0 Ecuador

8 22 24 0 0 1715 -16.800 -71.500 80 7.9

--> 08-30-1715 38N 15E Italy/Sicily

2 6 0 0 0 1716 -17.200 -71.200 40 8.8

--> 02-11-1716 13S 76W MW=8.6 Central Peru
--> 02-21-1716 38N 15E Italy/Sicily

1 8 13 0 0 1725 -16.400 -70.800 3 7.6

--> 01-08-1725 25N 103E M =6.0 Sichuan Province, China
--> 02-01-1725 56N 118E MW=8.2 Eastern Siberia

5 13 12 36 0 1784 -16.500 -72.000 27 8.0

--> Events concentrated in Italy and as aftershocks - thousands

7 10 13 0 0 1821 -16.100 -73.000 90 8.2

--> 07-12-1821 38N 16E Italy/Sicily

8 24 18 45 0 1869 -17.500 -72.000 30 7.5

--> 08-29-1869 50N 3W MMI=III Wales/England
--> 09-01-1869 41N 43E Ml=5.0 Caucasus
--> 09-03-1869 12S 77W MMI=III Central Peru

7 28 6 40 0 1913 -16.600 -73.300 30 7.0
8 6 22 14 24 1913 -15.800 -73.500 0 7.8

--> 07-29-1913 47N 122W Ml=4.3 Seattle, Washington
--> 07-31-1913 42N 142E Ml=5.9 Hokkaido, Japan
--> 08-01-1913 48N 155E MW=7.7 Kuril Islands
--> 08-03-1913 36N 84W ML=3.3 Eastern Tennessee/Virginia
--> 08-06-1913 15S 73W Mw=7.8 Southern Peru
--> 08-10-1913 44N 74W Ml=3.7 Southern New England
--> 08-13-1913 5S 105E MW=7.2 South of Sumatera

1 6 14 11 2 1922 -16.500 -73.000 60 7.2

--> 01-08-1922 52N 158E MB=5.4 Kuril Islands/Kamchatka
--> 01-09-1922 24N 46W MS=7.1 Northern Mid-Atlantic ridge
--> 01-11-1922 37N 87W Ml=4.6 Kentucky/Virginia
--> 01-11-1922 40N 20E Ml=4.0 No. Greece
--> 01-17-1922 2S 71W MW=7.6 Peru/Ecuador (deep earthquake)
--> 01-22-1922 37S 140E MW=6.5 Honshu Japan
--> 01-26-1922 41N 126W ML=6.0 Off Coast No. California

10 11 14 51 0 1939 -15.305 -72.199 120 8.5

--> 10-11-1939 42N 72W ML=3.1 So. New England
--> 10-12-1939 34N 116W ML=3.5 Joshua Tree, California
--> 10-13-1939 36N 138E ML=5.0 E. Coast Honshu, (swarm)
--> 10-14-1939 10N 64W ML=5.6 Trinidad area
--> 10-14-1939 34N 118W ML=3.4 Los Angeles, CA
--> 10-17-1939 15S 168E MW=7.4 Vanuatu Islands,
--> 10-17-1939 34S 121W ML=4.0 West of Santa Barbara CA
--> 10-19-1939 37S 1119 ML=3.5 Mammoth Lakes area CA
--> 10-19-1939 47N 69W ML=5.8 No. New England/Quebec
--> 10-19-1939 40N 29E ML=5.3 Turkey
--> 10-20-1939 8N 82W ML=6.0 Panama
--> 10-22-1939 42N 144E ML=6.0 Hokkaido, Kurils

8 24 22 50 0 1942 -15.500 -74.700 70 8.6

--> 08-25-1942 32N 131E ML=6.0 Kyushu, Japan
--> 08-26-1942 46N 77W ML=4.1 Southern Quebec
--> 08-27-1942 46N 27E ML=4.2 Romania
--> 08-27-1942 42N 21E ML=6.0 No. Greece/Balkans
--> 08-27-1942 42N 21E ML=6.0 No. Greece/Balkans
--> 08-28-1942 39S 175E ML=4.5 North Island, N.Z.
--> 08-29-1942 24S 179E MW=6.8 Fiji Islands
--> 08-30-1942 37N 113W ML=5.0 Western Utah
--> 09-01-1942 36N 27E ML=6.0 Eastern Mediterranean
--> 09-01-1942 41S 175E ML=4.5 Cook Strait N.Z.
--> 09-01-1942 47N 127E ML=6.0 NE CHina
--> 09-08-1942 37N 139E ML=6.3 E. Coast Honshu, Japan
--> 09-01-1942 36N 141E ML=5.8 E. Coast Honshu, Japan
--> 09-09-1942 53N 164W MW=7.0 Unimak Island, Alaska

2 16 7 28 35 1943 -15.000 -72.000 190 7.0

--> 02-16-1943 46N 75W ML=3.1 Southern Quebec
--> 02-17-1943 45S 168E ML=6.9 South Island, N.Z.
--> 02-18-1943 37N 118W Ml=4.0 Mammoth Lakes, California
--> 02-18-1943 33N 116W Ml=3.5 Salton Sea, California
--> 02-18-1943 33N 116W Ml=3.5 Salton Sea, California
--> 02-20-1943 33S 179W MW=6.6 So. Kermadec Islands, N.Z.
--> 02-22-1943 17N 101W MW=7.5 Guererro, Mexico
--> 02-22-1943 41N 112W ML=5.1 No. Utah
--> 02-23-1943 22N 100E ML=5.0 Yunnan, China
--> 02-25-1943 41S 175E ML=5.5 Cook Strait, N.Z.
--> 02-28-1943 36N 70E ML=7.0 Hindu Kush area

7 20 11 2 17 1948 -17.000 -75.000 70 7.1

--> 07-20-1948 36N 140E ML=5.2 E. Coast Honshu, Japan
--> 07-22-1948 37N 22E ML=5.4 Southern Greece
--> 07-22-1948 50N 129W ML=5.5 Vancouver B.C.
--> 07-22-1948 45S 167E ML=5.3 South Island, New Zealand
--> 07-22-1948 45S 167E ML=5.3 South Island, New Zealand
--> 07-24-1948 35N 24E MW=7.0 Crete, Greece
--> 07-26-1948 36N 118W ML=4.5 Coso Junction, California
--> 07-26-1948 8N 77W MW=5.0 Colombia-Panama
--> 07-29-1948 45N 150E MW=6.1 Kurile Islands
--> 07-29-1948 35N 121W ML=3.4 W. of Santa Barbara, CA

1 15 19 14 29 1958 -16.500 -71.500 60 7.3

--> 01-15-1958 13S 166E MW=6.4 Vanuatu Islands
--> 01-16-1958 36N 53E ML=5.6 Iran
--> 01-16-1958 39N 25E ML=5.6 Aegean Sea, Greece
--> 01-17-1958 1S 127E ML=5.5 Molucca Strait
--> 01-17-1958 51S 139E ML=6.0 South of Australia
--> 01-17-1958 41S 174E ML=4.5 No.Island, New Zealand
--> 01-18-1958 29S 13W ML=5.5 So. Atlantic Ridge
--> 01-19-1958 38N 118W ML=4.4 Mammoth Lakes, California
--> 01-19-1958 2S 79W MW=7.8 Ecuador
--> 01-23-1958 44N 146E MW=6.7 Kurile Islands
--> 01-23-1958 34N 120W ML=2.6 W. of Santa Barbara, CA
--> 01-24-1958 56N 116E ML=6.2 Siberia
--> 01-24-1958 54N 163E ML=6.5 Kamchatka
--> 01-24-1958 45N 81W ML=3.5 Ontario, Ohio area
--> 01-24-1958 60N 151W ML=6.5 Southern Alaska

1 13 15 40 34 1960 -15.800 -72.800 200 8.0
1 15 9 30 24 1960 -15.000 -75.000 150 7.0

--> 01-14-1960 36N 140E MW=6.0 E. Coast Honshu
--> 01-16-1960 63N 150E MW=5.9 Southern Alaska
--> 01-17-1960 41S 174E ML=4.5 No. Island, N.Z..
--> 01-17-1960 38S 175E ML=5.1 No. Island, N.Z..
--> 01-17-1960 41N 142E ML=5.5 Hokkaido, Japan
--> 01-18-1960 54S 31E ML=5.9 South of Africa
--> 01-18-1960 5N 126E ML=5.9 Mindanao, P.I.
--> 01-18-1960 9N 77W ML=5.5 Panama
--> 01-19-1960 52N 158E ML=6.4 Kurile/Kamchatka
--> 01-19-1960 23S 179E ML=6.0 Fiji/Tonga Islands
--> 01-20-1960 37S 121W ML=5.5 Central San Andreas, CA.
--> 01-21-1960 44S 111W ML=5.0 Yellowstone area
--> 01-21-1960 38S 118W ML=4.2 Mammoth Lakes area
--> 01-22-1960 41N 75W ML=3.4 New York area
--> 01-23-1960 4S 127E MW=6.8 Banda Sea area
--> 01-24-1960 43S 127W ML=4.5 Off Coast of Oregon
--> 01-24-1960 15S 179W ML=6.4 Fiji/Tonga Islands
--> 01-26-1960 40N 40E ML=6.1 Eastern Turkey
--> 01-29-1960 36N 71E ML=6.1 Hindu Kush

4 12 23 19 55 1988 -17.209 -72.251 50 7.6
--> 04-14-1988 37N 82W ML=4.1 West Virginia
--> 04-14-1988 39N 99W ML=3.6 Kansas
--> 04-14-1988 2N 127E ML=5.5 Molucca Passage
--> 04-14-1988 2N 127E ML=5.5 Molucca Passage
--> 04-17-1988 58S 25W ML=6.1 South Sandwich Islands
--> 04-16-1988 46S 166E ML=5.1 South Island, N.Z.
--> 04-16-1988 10S 27E ML=5.6 Zaire
--> 04-17-1988 11N 87W ML=5.1 El Salvador/Nicaragua
--> 04-19-1988 56N 156W ML=5.2 Alaska Peninsula
--> 04-22-1988 17N 61W ML=5.0 Leeward Islands

In general, the following areas are most likely to see
significant increases in seismicity in the forthcoming 10 days
(until July 3, 2001):

Primary regions (Earthquake of Mb>6 Possible):

East Coast of Honshu to Kuril Islands
Ecuador to Northern Peru
Guerrero/Michoacan Mexico
Hindu Kush

Earthquake of Mb>5.0 possible):

South Island to Southern North Island, New Zealand (Alert status)
El Salvador, Northern Caribbean boundary (Leeward Isl. Puerto Rico,
Dominican Republic area)
Alaska Peninsula to Unimak Island
Central Chile
Aegean Sea to No. Greece
Vanuatu Islands, Banda Sea
Fiji Islands
Eastern Siberia
Central Chile near Valparaiso

Local Increase in Seismicity (Ml>4.0 possible)

Mammoth Lakes, California
Area west of Los Angeles, CA
Yellowstone, WY to No. Utah
New England region to Quebec (M>3)
Virginia/West Virginia (M>3)
Eastern Turkey
Sichuan China