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EQF's prediction program |
Hi EQF; > With the sun Earth moon angle you have to look for significant data subsets. And they can be a little tricky to find. That's what I was doing and I didn't find any. But I don't have a rigorous way to do it. > *** That angle appears to have a fairly easily observed significance for the most powerful earthquakes. I believe that effects start showing up for 6.7 magnitude earthquakes and higher. I looked at all 7.0+ from 1900 on, around 1680 of them. > *** The angle can be important for forecasting where you are working with warning signals and earthquakes within a 6 month time window. I havent checked to see if the time window is ever longer than that. No angle is favored. > *** The angle appears to be important for earthquakes at certain specific locations. I did a study of about 150 strongly felt earthquakes in the Japan area. And they appeared to be occurring when the sun Earth moon angle had certain values. Then they should have been present in what I did. > What researchers should be doing is putting together a collection of comparison studies like those which show that this or that effect is important here or there. I have already done a number of them but do not have time at the moment to spend on doing any more. Wouldn't you expect certain angles for certain locations? I didn't find any. > Once again, studies which simply look at the sun Earth moon angle for all earthquakes probably produce random looking data. You have to look at significant data subsets. And since you can be working with thousands of earthquakes in those subsets they should still be valid. They should be but they don't seem to be. > Also, I am still finding that the single most important piece of earthquake and warning signal related data is the adjusted "Gravity Point." It is the location on the surface of the Earth where the combined gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon are strongest. "Adjusted" means that locations 0, 90, 180, and 270 longitude degrees to the west of the Gravity Point are also roughly equally important. With the limited accuracy of the work I am doing the absolute value of the Gravity Point is not too important. Relative values are what are important. That means that different factor values will work with the equations as long as you stick with the same set when comparing a group of earthquakes etc. If the angle is a critical factor it should be present even if it isn't the ONLY factor. Roger Follow Ups: ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF 15:11:50 - 8/6/2004 (22319) (1) ● Corrected address - EQF 15:16:04 - 8/6/2004 (22321) (1) ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter 15:18:51 - 8/6/2004 (22322) (1) ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter 16:04:19 - 8/6/2004 (22323) (2) ● Japan data pattern - EQF 05:09:54 - 8/7/2004 (22339) (1) ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter 16:02:40 - 8/7/2004 (22349) (1) ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF 16:06:15 - 8/7/2004 (22352) (0) ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF 18:17:59 - 8/6/2004 (22327) (1) ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter 20:01:59 - 8/6/2004 (22328) (1) ● Earthquake Pairs - EQF 00:25:04 - 8/7/2004 (22333) (1) ● Re: Earthquake Pairs - EQF 03:46:35 - 8/7/2004 (22337) (1) ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter 07:31:37 - 8/7/2004 (22341) (1) ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF 14:46:15 - 8/7/2004 (22347) (0) ● which tide? - John Vidale 20:23:38 - 8/5/2004 (22315) (1) ● Re: which tide? - EQF 15:12:13 - 8/6/2004 (22320) (1) ● which tide? - John Vidale 17:24:25 - 8/6/2004 (22324) (1) ● Re: which tide? - EQF 18:08:04 - 8/6/2004 (22325) (1) ● never mind - John Vidale 20:05:36 - 8/6/2004 (22329) (1) ● Your choice - EQF 00:25:22 - 8/7/2004 (22334) (2) ● Rise to your own challenge - Cathryn 14:25:28 - 8/9/2004 (22398) (0) ● very colorful, but Roger? - John Vidale 07:12:31 - 8/7/2004 (22340) (2) ● Comments - EQF 16:03:18 - 8/7/2004 (22350) (2) ● a chance for you to show a little knowledge - John Vidale 16:47:37 - 8/7/2004 (22356) (1) ● Re: a chance for you to show a little knowledge - EQF 19:01:19 - 8/7/2004 (22361) (1) ● I am looking for ideas that work. - John Vidale 20:46:20 - 8/7/2004 (22367) (0) ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter 16:20:42 - 8/7/2004 (22353) (1) ● Earthquakes and the sun - Earth - moon angle - EQF 16:44:52 - 8/7/2004 (22355) (1) ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter 17:46:38 - 8/7/2004 (22358) (0) ● Test of mag 8+ quakes - Roger Hunter 07:56:57 - 8/7/2004 (22344) (1) ● thanks (nm) - John Vidale 08:26:11 - 8/7/2004 (22345) (0) |
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