EQF's prediction program
Posted by Roger Hunter on August 05, 2004 at 20:13:23:

Hi EQF;

> With the sun – Earth – moon angle you have to look for significant data subsets. And they can be a little tricky to find.

That's what I was doing and I didn't find any. But I don't have a rigorous way to do it.

> *** That angle appears to have a fairly easily observed significance for the most powerful earthquakes. I believe that effects start showing up for 6.7 magnitude earthquakes and higher.

I looked at all 7.0+ from 1900 on, around 1680 of them.

> *** The angle can be important for forecasting where you are working with warning signals and earthquakes within a 6 month time window. I haven’t checked to see if the time window is ever longer than that.

No angle is favored.

> *** The angle appears to be important for earthquakes at certain specific locations. I did a study of about 150 strongly felt earthquakes in the Japan area. And they appeared to be occurring when the sun – Earth – moon angle had certain values.

Then they should have been present in what I did.

> What researchers should be doing is putting together a collection of comparison studies like those which show that this or that effect is important here or there. I have already done a number of them but do not have time at the moment to spend on doing any more.

Wouldn't you expect certain angles for certain locations? I didn't find any.

> Once again, studies which simply look at the sun – Earth – moon angle for all earthquakes probably produce random looking data. You have to look at significant data subsets. And since you can be working with thousands of earthquakes in those subsets they should still be valid.

They should be but they don't seem to be.

> Also, I am still finding that the single most important piece of earthquake and warning signal related data is the adjusted "Gravity Point." It is the location on the surface of the Earth where the combined gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon are strongest. "Adjusted" means that locations 0, 90, 180, and 270 longitude degrees to the west of the Gravity Point are also roughly equally important. With the limited accuracy of the work I am doing the absolute value of the Gravity Point is not too important. Relative values are what are important. That means that different factor values will work with the equations as long as you stick with the same set when comparing a group of earthquakes etc.

If the angle is a critical factor it should be present even if it isn't the ONLY factor.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF  15:11:50 - 8/6/2004  (22319)  (1)
        ● Corrected address - EQF  15:16:04 - 8/6/2004  (22321)  (1)
           ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter  15:18:51 - 8/6/2004  (22322)  (1)
              ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter  16:04:19 - 8/6/2004  (22323)  (2)
                 ● Japan data pattern - EQF  05:09:54 - 8/7/2004  (22339)  (1)
                    ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter  16:02:40 - 8/7/2004  (22349)  (1)
                       ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF  16:06:15 - 8/7/2004  (22352)  (0)
                 ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF  18:17:59 - 8/6/2004  (22327)  (1)
                    ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter  20:01:59 - 8/6/2004  (22328)  (1)
                       ● Earthquake Pairs - EQF  00:25:04 - 8/7/2004  (22333)  (1)
                          ● Re: Earthquake Pairs - EQF  03:46:35 - 8/7/2004  (22337)  (1)
                             ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter  07:31:37 - 8/7/2004  (22341)  (1)
                                ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF  14:46:15 - 8/7/2004  (22347)  (0)
     ● which tide? - John Vidale  20:23:38 - 8/5/2004  (22315)  (1)
        ● Re: which tide? - EQF  15:12:13 - 8/6/2004  (22320)  (1)
           ● which tide? - John Vidale  17:24:25 - 8/6/2004  (22324)  (1)
              ● Re: which tide? - EQF  18:08:04 - 8/6/2004  (22325)  (1)
                 ● never mind - John Vidale  20:05:36 - 8/6/2004  (22329)  (1)
                    ● Your choice - EQF  00:25:22 - 8/7/2004  (22334)  (2)
                       ● Rise to your own challenge - Cathryn  14:25:28 - 8/9/2004  (22398)  (0)
                       ● very colorful, but Roger? - John Vidale  07:12:31 - 8/7/2004  (22340)  (2)
                          ● Comments - EQF  16:03:18 - 8/7/2004  (22350)  (2)
                             ● a chance for you to show a little knowledge - John Vidale  16:47:37 - 8/7/2004  (22356)  (1)
                                ● Re: a chance for you to show a little knowledge - EQF  19:01:19 - 8/7/2004  (22361)  (1)
                                   ● I am looking for ideas that work. - John Vidale  20:46:20 - 8/7/2004  (22367)  (0)
                             ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter  16:20:42 - 8/7/2004  (22353)  (1)
                                ● Earthquakes and the sun - Earth - moon angle - EQF  16:44:52 - 8/7/2004  (22355)  (1)
                                   ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter  17:46:38 - 8/7/2004  (22358)  (0)
                          ● Test of mag 8+ quakes - Roger Hunter  07:56:57 - 8/7/2004  (22344)  (1)
                             ● thanks (nm) - John Vidale  08:26:11 - 8/7/2004  (22345)  (0)