Canie,

This note is intended largely for you. However, quite a few other people should enjoy reading it as they are probably already aware of this. You may be as well. But I will cover it just the same.

Whether they are doing it intentionally or not, people are often diverting attention away from important earthquake forecasting topics being discussed here by starting conversations which attract attention but which have nothing to do with what was being discussed. And that slows scientific progress by causing time to be wasted and by filling the airwaves with material which drowns out the other topics.

For example, I have recently been discussing two projects which I feel have the potential to help us get a good focus on the earthquake science. One has to do with that probability program that Roger wrote. The other has to do with liking solar storm induced geomagnetic storms with earthquake warning signals and earthquake triggering. I think that we are now in a position to begin making some substantial progress with both of those.

However, virtually no one posted any comments regarding those two subjects. Instead another thread got started regarding credibility. And somehow my forecasting work got dragged into the discussion. I had no intention of joining in myself. But when I saw you post a note I thought that I had better say something. As you are the person who is running the show here we need to try to keep you happy.

These other matters are diversionary efforts, intentional or not. They draw people's attention and time away from the important topics. As you have seen I have stated before to a number of people that I do not intend to get into a discussion with them on some of these topics. I am trying to focus on the technology.

I have a gradually expanding group of people outside the U.S. who are interested in this technology and who are following the discussions even if they themselves are not posting notes. These are mature professionals. They understand that these are "smoke and mirrors" diversionary discussions. And they are not getting sidetracked by them. I would say that they are reacting with a mixture of amusement, frustration, and impatience. They want to see some progress made.

In summary, respond to those notes if you wish. I appreciate your efforts to help keep a lid on things. Don't let these other notes get you sidetracked. I am willing to largely ignore them if they do not get too ridiculous. However when you get directly involved I start to get a little worried about the direction in which things might be heading.