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More High Accuracy Earthquake Forecasts – August 20, 2011 |
More High Accuracy Earthquake Forecasts – Posted by EQF on August 20, 2011 On August 15, 2011 I posted an advisory to this bulletin board stating that a strong EM Signal had been detected earlier that day and that a powerful and possibly significant earthquake was probably responsible for the signal and that it might occur within a week. In the advisory I also provided a copy of my latest forecasting chart and said that people should be watching locations along longitudes were there were line peaks on the 15 day Time Window. But they should look outside the Japan area. Japan earthquake aftershocks would be expected anyway. The following earthquakes have now occurred: 2011/08/20 18:19:25 18.28S 168.13E 29 7.0 Vanuatu If you look at the chart below you will see that there were line peaks around 168 E on the 15 day time window. And remember that this chart will change with time as new versions are stored on my Web site. Additionally, I did an analysis of the strong EM Signal detected on August 15 and the individual signal itself pointed to 168 E. The Time Window lines on my charts represent many EM Signals averaged together. JAPAN AFTERSHOCKSThe fact that line peaks are constantly appearing around 142 E on the charts (Japan) also demonstrates that the charts are generating accurate earthquake forecast data for some percentage of the aftershocks that are occurring in that area. ALASKA AND KERMADEC ISLANDS EARTHQUAKES I have also been watching the line peak groups around 175 W on the chart that appeared late in May. You can see them on the above chart. It was important to see if they disappeared after those powerful June and July Alaska and Kermadec Islands earthquakes occurred. And the line peak groups did disappear shortly after that second group of earthquakes. 2011/07/06 19:03:17 29.31S 176.20W 20 7.6 Kermadec Islands Region THE DATA IN THESE EARTHQUAKE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS Remember, this forecasting method and these charts do not attempt to tell people that an earthquake of this or that magnitude will occur at a specific location at some exact time. Instead their present goal is to let people know when a significant earthquake could be approaching and then provide them with some information on where they might try to look for earthquake precursors that could confirm that an earthquake could be on the way. And, that is exactly what happened here with both those Vanuatu and Alaska and Kermadec Islands earthquakes. My August 15 advisory stated that people should start checking for precursor activity with an emphasis on the area of those line peaks, namely along the 168 E longitude line. And if people had been watching those areas then they might have been able to spot the approach of those two powerful earthquakes. Had those earthquakes occurred near a large city, with 7 magnitudes they could have been highly destructive. So, we got off lucky this time. Some valuable forecast data were collected. And no lives were lost as far as I have heard. These are personal opinions. Follow Ups: ● Update – August 20, 2011 - EQF 17:36:42 - 8/20/2011 (79074) (2) ● Earthquake Forecasting Program Accuracy And Potential Clearly Demonstrated – August 20, 2011 - EQF 18:22:18 - 8/20/2011 (79077) (0) ● Re: Update – August 20, 2011 - heartland chris 17:43:57 - 8/20/2011 (79076) (1) ● Re: Update – August 20, 2011 - EQF 18:33:23 - 8/20/2011 (79078) (2) ● always a hit, never an assessment - John Vidale 09:50:31 - 8/21/2011 (79082) (0) ● More Trouble For The Japan Nuclear Power Industry - August 20, 2011 - EQF 19:02:03 - 8/20/2011 (79080) (1) ● Re: More Trouble For The Japan Nuclear Power Industry - August 20, 2011 - heartland chris 06:50:11 - 8/21/2011 (79081) (1) ● Are Other People Interested In This Particular Topic - If So Then It Can Be Expanded - August 22, 2011 - EQF 00:00:53 - 8/22/2011 (79083) (1) ● Re: Are Other People Interested In This Particular Topic - If So Then It Can Be Expanded - August 22, 2011 - heartland chris 07:50:28 - 8/22/2011 (79084) (1) ● Re: Are Other People Interested In This Particular Topic - If So Then It Can Be Expanded - August 22, 2011 - EQF 12:57:52 - 8/22/2011 (79086) (1) ● Re: Are Other People Interested In This Particular Topic - If So Then It Can Be Expanded - August 22, 2011 - Roger Hunter 17:18:03 - 8/22/2011 (79087) (2) ● Re: Are Other People Interested In This Particular Topic - If So Then It Can Be Expanded - August 22, 2011 - EQF 18:01:08 - 8/23/2011 (79105) (0) ● Re: Are Other People Interested In This Particular Topic - If So Then It Can Be Expanded - August 22, 2011 - heartland chris 06:31:23 - 8/23/2011 (79093) (0) |
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