Re: Alan
Posted by Roger Hunter on March 16, 2001 at 14:00:07:

Here's the procedure.

from the prediction, determine the limits in time, space and size.

Go to the NEIC website and do a search for the space and size quakes for the longest time possible. You then have a file of all the quakes in the area of the right size.

Run my probability program on that file, specifying the window size to be used. This gives you the number of windows, the number of hit windows (1 or more per window) and the probability which is hit windows/total windows.

Simple enough, but I've spent countless messages on Syzygy trying to convince them that it's more correct than window days (total)/total days.

They like that answer better because it gives a better looking answer where JOB is concerned. He looks significant that way.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Windows - michael  14:41:15 - 3/16/2001  (6061)  (1)
        ● Re: Windows - Roger Hunter  15:33:28 - 3/16/2001  (6068)  (1)
           ● Windows - michael  15:54:55 - 3/16/2001  (6070)  (1)
              ● Re: Windows - Roger Hunter  16:09:55 - 3/16/2001  (6071)  (1)
                 ● Windows - michael  16:21:27 - 3/16/2001  (6072)  (1)
                    ● Re: Windows - Roger Hunter  17:27:29 - 3/16/2001  (6074)  (2)
                       ● Windows - michael  00:41:42 - 3/18/2001  (6098)  (1)
                          ● Typo - michael  00:44:42 - 3/18/2001  (6099)  (1)
                             ● Re: Typo - Roger Hunter  05:43:29 - 3/18/2001  (6108)  (1)
                                ● Accuracy - michael  10:31:31 - 3/18/2001  (6146)  (1)
                                   ● Re: Accuracy - Roger Hunter  14:08:58 - 3/18/2001  (6153)  (1)
                                      ● Accuracy - michael  08:06:08 - 3/19/2001  (6170)  (1)
                                         ● Re: Accuracy - Roger Hunter  09:24:44 - 3/19/2001  (6175)  (1)
                                            ● Accuracy - michael  10:39:11 - 3/19/2001  (6177)  (1)
                                               ● Re: Accuracy - Roger Hunter  10:52:37 - 3/19/2001  (6181)  (0)
                       ● Re: Windows - Roger Hunter  17:30:36 - 3/16/2001  (6075)  (0)