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Re: Alan |
Here's the procedure. from the prediction, determine the limits in time, space and size. Go to the NEIC website and do a search for the space and size quakes for the longest time possible. You then have a file of all the quakes in the area of the right size. Run my probability program on that file, specifying the window size to be used. This gives you the number of windows, the number of hit windows (1 or more per window) and the probability which is hit windows/total windows. Simple enough, but I've spent countless messages on Syzygy trying to convince them that it's more correct than window days (total)/total days. They like that answer better because it gives a better looking answer where JOB is concerned. He looks significant that way. Roger Follow Ups: ● Windows - michael 14:41:15 - 3/16/2001 (6061) (1) ● Re: Windows - Roger Hunter 15:33:28 - 3/16/2001 (6068) (1) ● Windows - michael 15:54:55 - 3/16/2001 (6070) (1) ● Re: Windows - Roger Hunter 16:09:55 - 3/16/2001 (6071) (1) ● Windows - michael 16:21:27 - 3/16/2001 (6072) (1) ● Re: Windows - Roger Hunter 17:27:29 - 3/16/2001 (6074) (2) ● Windows - michael 00:41:42 - 3/18/2001 (6098) (1) ● Typo - michael 00:44:42 - 3/18/2001 (6099) (1) ● Re: Typo - Roger Hunter 05:43:29 - 3/18/2001 (6108) (1) ● Accuracy - michael 10:31:31 - 3/18/2001 (6146) (1) ● Re: Accuracy - Roger Hunter 14:08:58 - 3/18/2001 (6153) (1) ● Accuracy - michael 08:06:08 - 3/19/2001 (6170) (1) ● Re: Accuracy - Roger Hunter 09:24:44 - 3/19/2001 (6175) (1) ● Accuracy - michael 10:39:11 - 3/19/2001 (6177) (1) ● Re: Accuracy - Roger Hunter 10:52:37 - 3/19/2001 (6181) (0) ● Re: Windows - Roger Hunter 17:30:36 - 3/16/2001 (6075) (0) |
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