Hi David and welcome.

Your comments are much apprectiated.

Leeway is something this scientific oriented mind would like to ignore, as it is subjective. I think comparison to random chance is rather useless for an individual event, I feel it would be quite usefull over the long run for a given predictor.

Prediction is not an exact science, as we well know. But, if we are to begin learning about possible routes to reliable predictions, I thing we are going to have to look for subtle clues in all the noise. The way, in my opion, to do that is to look for subtle trends over time, in a
quantitaive manner.