Michael: Thanks for your response.

Yes, both probability and leeway would be subjective. In the case of probability, the benefits would be very limited and may only serve to disprove. On the other hand, leeway has the potential benefit of giving the predictor more confidence to make another prediction. This could bring new ideas.

How about just looking for anyone who can make consitent predictions. Period. If the prediction is too wide, we can all see that. For most people, it is likely very difficult even to bring themselves to make a prediction. Then, if it is going to be judged in some subjective manner, it would likely be discouraging.

Where a little leeway would likely only open the window a little, the probability may be something just to keep for yourself.