Prove, disprove let's call that a draw for now.

Think of it this way:

If you have seen many predictions, think back to yourself if you needed anyone to tell you when someone was predicting something obvious. Then think of how complicated the whole equation of probability will be when you'll have to consider the size of the area, current seismicity, magnitudes and everything else. Is it really worth the trouble?

It is so complicated. Say we have an M5 every week here in Taiwan. Does that effect the probability that we will have a six? How would you work out how it effects the probability compared to another place that is not as active.

If you'd like, I'd be happy to continue to discuss how senseless probability is to calculate for earthquakes, but first you should consider how senseless it is in general. So much trouble for what? Your current format is good and helpful to visitors and predictors alike. It is easy to understand and seems unbiased.