Her's an example, and one of many, of why I don't think I'm doing too bad with the way things are with my present technique- First the forecast on Syzygy from last May-Taiwan, Taichung Lakes region 76%, 5.2-7M,14 DAYS OR LESS, 05/29/99,
"Foreshocks and phenomena, Worms are coming out of the soil to avoid drowning as the water table is reaching saturation from foreshock tremors. Could wait until the full moon but I doubt it"...mb.
Eleven Days later...
In reply-"About twenty minutes ago. Still no data available, but judging by the stuff that got broken in my apartment, I'd say Martin got a hit." (David in Taichung)
Then-
"How about 6.7. That certainly meets Martin's magnitude and window. I think there are still two days left in the prediction. I was hoping he was wrong. We have also had two 4.3s and a 5.1 in the last hour. Of course it is the middle of the night over here and will ruin a perfectly good night's sleep."

That was after predicting the two 5.2m foreshocks earlier that killed several there.
Over 150 people died this year in earthquakes that n.i.c.e. had forecast. So Whatever!
Smoke in the wind? Yes after those earthquakes, there was smoke on the wind!...mb.