John,

You wrote, gno way to spot the precursory deformation indicated by the rate-and-state theoryh

Thatfs easy to understand.

gIn the theorych
You have not, though, answered my questions and it is hard to see how this is a gtheoryh.

gprobably far smallerc
might occur c
could be as small asc
could be happening all the timech

Doesnft sound very conclusive to me. And thatfs just in your one short post. Your other posts also included heavy qualifications concerning this gtheory.h

What observable phenomena does this theory say WILL happen so that the theory can be validated or scrapped?

From what you write, it just sounds like speculation, and even the basis of the speculation is not clear. Publicizing such speculation with qualifications, but without any clarity, seems to serve no other purpose than PR.

Public Information Office
University of California-Los Angeles
October 21, 1998
gVidale's research supports the theory that earthquakes are preceded by a "preparatory phase" that begins days in advance and accelerates substantially in the final few minutes or seconds before the actual earthquakes.h

Ara