Hi All. Thought I would post what a good earthquake prediction will be. Take Care…Don in creepy town

A good earthquake prediction will have the following components:

(1) a specific geographic location
(2) a specific time window
(3) a specific magnitude
(4) a probability estimate, and how it was determined

A specific geographic location means, for example, 'in the area within
20 km of Cape Mendocino' or 'within 15 km of San Jose'. Saying something
like, 'somewhere between San Francisco and Mexico' or 'on the eastern
side of the Sierra Nevada' won't cut it, because it's by far too large
an area.

A specific time window means, for example, 'between 20 July and 22 July,
1993', not 'sometime within the next three months'.

A specific magnitude range means, for example, 'between 4.0 and 4.5 on the
Richter scale' or 'larger than 6.5 on the Richter scale'.

And the probability estimate means, 'There is a 65% chance of this happening.'
And it's important that the person doing the 'predicting' explain how he or
she arrived at the probability estimate. Simply guessing that there is, oh,
about a 65% chance is not good enough for people to judge the prediction.

So a good earthquake prediction will read something like this:

There is a 65% probability that there will be an earthquake of
magnitude approximately 5 on the Richter scale within 20 kilometers
of Cape Mendocino between 20 July and 22 July, 1993. The probability
estimate is based on my historic success rate, as shown by the
published predictions I have made.

This kind of a prediction gives you enough specific information to (a) decide
if you believe the person *before* the quake, (b) decide if it's worth worrying
about or making some sort of change in your life, and (c) test it when it
either does or does not happen.

A bad earthquake prediction reads something like this:

On 24 April 1992, there was a magnitude 6 earthquake near Cape
Mendocino. I predicted this quake, saying that there would be
a magnitude 6 earthquake somewhere between Japan and Washington
State.

The reasons this one is bad should be obvious, but in case they aren't, here
are some of them:

(1) the 'prediction' is announced after the fact
(2) the geographic area is much too large to be of any use,
and in fact is so large as to almost guarantee the success
of the prediction by chance.
(3) there is no time estimate. Magnitude 6 earthquakes happen
with regularity in this zone, and not giving a time window
practically guarantees success (unless the quakes simply
stop happening).
(4) there is no probability estimate.

• Good Earthquake Prediction