Hi EQF. Your words. “There are now advanced earthquake forecasting programs running in a number of countries. China would probably be tops. They are also running in the Philippines, Greece, and Turkey. I think there is also something running in Taiwan but am not certain of that. It is hard for me to tell exactly what the Japanese are doing.”

“If you were to contact people in those countries and say, “I am expecting an 8.5 magnitude earthquake somewhere in the world in the next few day” and they believed you, then they could check their own data and see if it might be headed in their direction. If their own data indicated to them that it was then they could issue an alert and try to get people out of the expected destruction area.”

If as you say there are advanced earthquake forecasting programs running in a number of countries then they wouldn’t need anyone to tell them that there is going to be M>8.5 somewhere in the world in the next couple of days. They would already know that one is going to occur, that is if they have advanced earthquake-forecasting programs.

The strong earthquake measuring 6.1 on the Richter scale that struck Dayao County of southwest Yunnan Province Thursday night had killed at least two and injured six people as of 11:20 p.m. Thursday as the province's earthquake emergency rescue and disaster relief program was underway.

I suspect China doesn’t know they have a earthquake forecast program as it appears that no one advised these people that were going to have a quake.

Preliminary information shows more than 50 houses collapsed in the county's Liuju Township, the epicenter, burying an unknown number of people while the neighboring Tanhua Township was also seriously damaged by the tremor which shook Dayao in the Yi Ethnic Autonomous Prefecture at 8:28 p.m. Thursday.

Local officials feared the number of casualties might continue to rise as the areas were struggling to reconstruct their houses after the last earthquake hit the area this July and as the epicenter was some five kilometers underground.

It was difficult to calculate the casualties since the quake occurred at night, said Ye Libin, the prefecture chief.

All the deaths were reported in Tanhua Township, which was struck by a strong quake measuring 6.2 on the Richter scale earlier this July, killing 15 and injuring 294 people

The following is from the China Seismological Bureau (CSB) The copyright on this is 2001-2003 so it is recent.

“In certain circumstances, it is sometimes possible to make short-term and imminent earthquake predictions with some success. From long-term, continuous observation of earthquake precursors and systematical analysis of the features of these precursors, Chinese scientists have increased the knowledge of the seismogenic process and precursor, especially their common features and complexity. Earthquake prediction is divided into four groups according to the different types of precursors observed in different stages of the seismogenic process by Chinese scientists:

Long-term prediction: Prediction of earthquakes that will occur in several to 10 years.

Mid-term prediction: Prediction of earthquakes that will occur within several months to several years.

Short-term prediction: Prediction of earthquakes that will occur in the next two weeks to the several months.

Imminent prediction: Prediction of earthquakes that will occur within two weeks.
It is now more than 30 years since precursory monitoring and earthquake prediction has been carried out in China. However, earthquake prediction remains a complex and unsolved problem in spite of the development and improvement in this field. We still have far to go to reach our goal.”

That doesn’t sound like they are having very much success with their program.

As far as Japan goes. They are backing away from earthquake prediction. They have poured millions into the prediction program and have nothing to show for it. They haven’t made one single prediction. The thinking now is that the money could be better spent on research into making buildings, and infrastructures more earthquake resistant. Take Care…Don in creepy town