Ideally, one would state the probability of the event and the uncertainty of the probability.

A comparison of the probability of the event occurring at random and the probability of the event in the prediction would be the probability gain factor, which would require many predictions to evaluate.

This is quite far beyond what is offered at the top of this thread, which simply cannot be assessed as stated, as pointed out by Don. The most probable case is that there is simply no predictive power present. Certainly none has been demonstrated.

John