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Earthquake forecasting program is producing good results |
As pointed out numerous times in the past, I have developed an unusual earthquake forecasting program which is highly selective for earthquakes which are likely to be destructive. I can now say that I feel that it is producing increasingly accurate results. Formal earthquake warnings can require several days of data evaluation. And I rarely circulate them. But earthquake advisories can be circulated fairly quickly. They are simply intended to let governments around the world know that they should be ready for earthquakes which might cause relatively small amounts of damage. On April 7, 2003 I circulated advisories for specific locations in 4 countries, none of them here in the U.S. And mildly destructive earthquakes have now occurred in 3 of those 4 countries. One of them was so far from the location that I identified that I am not claiming it as a success. But a recent one in Turkey was moderately close to my stated location. And another in Afghanistan appears to have occurred very close. At the moment I am focusing on getting a report prepared and circulated regarding earthquake triggering processes. What I would like to do as soon as possible after that effort is finished is begin storing forecast data at my Web site with a format which would make it easier for people around the world to evaluate and use. Several months ago I told different groups around the world that I would consider attempting to do that immediately if any would offer to at least initially maintain the Web site where the data were stored. None expressed any interest. And earlier discussions along those lines in this bulletin board did not accomplish anything. This effort will involve quite a bit of computer programming time etc. And it could be another 6 months before those data become available. The work is being done for free. And I have only so much free time to work with. I feel that it is unfortunate that it will take so long assuming that it is even possible. I believe that those data might be invaluable to governments etc. around the world. These are personal opinions. Follow Ups: ● A demonstration earthquake triggering data file should be ready for viewing fairly soon - EQF 17:54:44 - 4/12/2003 (18439) (1) ● EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING FORCES CHART IS NOW READY FOR VIEWING - EQF 02:09:32 - 4/15/2003 (18447) (4) ● EXPLANATION INFORMATION IS NOW AVAILABLE - EQF 02:42:24 - 4/17/2003 (18474) (0) ● Re: Not Always So Negative - Petra Challus 21:58:06 - 4/15/2003 (18457) (1) ● Re: Not Always So Negative - EQF 19:45:02 - 4/16/2003 (18465) (1) ● Re: Not Always So Negative - Petra Challus 20:47:15 - 4/16/2003 (18467) (1) ● Re: Not Always So Negative - EQF 02:38:54 - 4/17/2003 (18473) (0) ● Re: EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING FORCES CHART IS NOW READY FOR VIEWING - Roger Hunter 14:47:24 - 4/15/2003 (18452) (1) ● Re: EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING FORCES CHART IS NOW READY FOR VIEWING - EQF 18:27:58 - 4/15/2003 (18454) (1) ● advice for deaf ears (EQF) - John Vidale 21:12:20 - 4/15/2003 (18455) (2) ● Re: advice for deaf ears (EQF) - EQF 19:09:51 - 4/16/2003 (18463) (1) ● we're not agreeing here - John Vidale 21:54:51 - 4/16/2003 (18469) (1) ● Re: we're not agreeing here - EQF 01:21:57 - 4/17/2003 (18471) (0) ● Re: advice for deaf ears (EQF) - Don in Hollister 21:39:00 - 4/15/2003 (18456) (1) ● Re: advice for deaf ears (EQF) - EQF 19:21:49 - 4/16/2003 (18464) (1) ● Re: advice for deaf ears (EQF) - Don in Hollister 20:50:05 - 4/16/2003 (18468) (1) ● Re: advice for deaf ears (EQF) - EQF 01:19:10 - 4/17/2003 (18470) (0) ● needs a few labels and corrections - John Vidale 09:32:53 - 4/15/2003 (18451) (1) ● Responses - EQF 18:27:44 - 4/15/2003 (18453) (0) ● Re: Earthquake forecasting program is producing good results - Don in Hollister 01:37:08 - 4/12/2003 (18438) (0) ● Re: Earthquake forecasting program is producing good results - Petra 17:57:25 - 4/11/2003 (18434) (0) ● Re: Earthquake forecasting program is producing good results - Roger Hunter 17:14:35 - 4/11/2003 (18433) (0) |
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