Earthquake Predictions
Posted by Don In Hollister on October 26, 2001 at 11:48:50:

Hi All. The following was taken from the UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON web site.
Dept. of Earth and Space Sciences, SEISMOLOGY LAB SEATTLE, WASHINGTON 98195-1310

“Earthquake prediction is a popular pastime for psychics and pseudo-scientists, and extravagant claims of past success are common. Predictions claimed as "successes" may rely on a restatement of well-understood long-term geologic earthquake hazards, or are so broad and vague that they are fulfilled by typical background seismic activity.

Neither tidal forces nor unusual animal behavior have been useful for predicting earthquakes. If an unscientific prediction is made, scientists can not state that the predicted earthquake will not occur, because an event could possibly occur by chance on the predicted date, though there is no reason to think that the predicted date is more likely than any other day.

Scientific earthquake predictions should state where, when, how big, and how probable the predicted event is, and why the prediction is made. The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council reviews such predictions, but no generally useful method of predicting earthquakes has yet been found.”

There are individuals and various different groups today who claim they are able to predict earthquakes. If this is true then why haven’t they made the predictions before the quake and placed them before the public to see? I have yet to see anyone with the exceptions of some who have posted on this board make a prediction and post it here, or some other board before the quake occurred that met the above guidelines.

For myself I never use a probability as I feel the quake will occur has it was forecasted, or it won’t. As to the why I feel a quake will occur as forecasted I can’t and won’t divulge that except to say that by making the forecasts public it is hoped that someone can supply an accurate magnitude of the forecasted quake.

I have started using Petra’s ear tones in the hopes that she can point the direction I should be looking at when using my data. So far it seems to be working in that were seeing quakes occur in the direction she indicates, but not necessarily the location she indicates. However in each case the window is still open. It is hopped the other person who supplies me with ear tones will become more proficient with them and can give me enough of them that I can see a pattern to them. Take Care…Don in creepy town


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - R.Shanmugasundaram  11:05:04 - 10/27/2001  (10368)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Billion Watts  20:27:37 - 10/27/2001  (10383)  (1)
           ● Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - Lowell  20:39:12 - 10/27/2001  (10386)  (1)
              ● Re: Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - Roger Hunter  04:56:37 - 10/28/2001  (10398)  (1)
                 ● Re: Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - mark  06:39:53 - 10/28/2001  (10399)  (2)
                    ● Re: Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - Roger Hunter  13:58:10 - 10/28/2001  (10423)  (3)
                       ● Re: Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - mark  23:16:42 - 10/28/2001  (10453)  (1)
                          ● Re: Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - R.Shanmugasundaram  07:16:41 - 10/30/2001  (10481)  (0)
                       ● Re: Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - R.Shanmugasundaram  17:35:31 - 10/28/2001  (10438)  (0)
                       ● Re: Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - Lowell  15:08:12 - 10/28/2001  (10428)  (1)
                          ● Re: Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - Roger Hunter  15:14:00 - 10/28/2001  (10429)  (1)
                             ● Re: Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - Lowell  15:21:37 - 10/28/2001  (10430)  (0)
                    ● Re: Solar/Geomagnetic Data sites for comparison with Shan's data - Lowell  09:48:31 - 10/28/2001  (10405)  (0)
     ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - michael  22:03:58 - 10/26/2001  (10353)  (2)
        ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Petra Challus  00:15:28 - 10/27/2001  (10357)  (1)
           ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Canie  06:15:16 - 10/27/2001  (10363)  (0)
        ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Lowell  22:36:00 - 10/26/2001  (10355)  (1)
           ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - 2cents  04:46:23 - 10/27/2001  (10362)  (0)
     ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Lowell  16:22:01 - 10/26/2001  (10345)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Petra Challus  18:22:58 - 10/26/2001  (10346)  (0)
     ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Petra Challus  12:10:52 - 10/26/2001  (10344)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Billion Watts  19:51:35 - 10/26/2001  (10347)  (2)
           ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Petra Challus  21:02:33 - 10/26/2001  (10349)  (1)
              ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Billion Watts  21:37:35 - 10/26/2001  (10350)  (0)
           ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Billion Watts  20:17:11 - 10/26/2001  (10348)  (1)
              ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Lowell  21:51:00 - 10/26/2001  (10352)  (2)
                 ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Roger Hunter  06:33:29 - 10/27/2001  (10364)  (0)
                 ● Re: Earthquake Predictions - Along Those Lines - Petra Challus  00:02:15 - 10/27/2001  (10356)  (0)