Hi Billion,

The National Earthquake Prediction Council is the body that governs issuance of earthquake predictions by members of the scientific community. IE: They cannot be issued to the pub without a review by this governing body.

As you can imagine, in order for the council to make a decision as serious as advising the emergency forces and the public, they have to know that the person(s) wishing to issue the prediction have a solid track record of success and data that is irrefutable in showing the chance of this potential earthquake weighs in far above random chance.

Of course, the primary problem with this situation is that the predicting scientist may not have a window that is long enough for the council to review the prediction and prior data to make a decision on time.

If you look at hurricane warnings for instance, one can clearly see from the data a hurricane does exist and yet it is not until it gets very close to landfall before evacuations are mandatory. When you place this kind of data against data used to predict earthquakes, something that cannot be seen in advance, we do have to understand how difficult it would be for the council members to approve a warning.

I do not know if during current times if this body of government has ever been placed in a position of saying yeah or nay. But I am curious to know.

I hope the above helps.

Petra