John,

Are we talking about Mogi Donuts or someone else's types of donuts? You rather threw me on that one. The kind I know form a circle in which the anticipated last earthquake in the series fills the center. Such as in Long Beach last year, if you recall.

As for 5.0's not releasing enough energy, I think if one uses the quote from the Earthquake Trail in Olema which says that it takes 30,000 5.0 quakes to release the same amount of energy as a 8.0, that is a good one. But how many quakes does it take to avert a 6.5? I disagree with your assessment of having many means more are coming versus few equals less likelihood.

If an area is coming out of a stress shadow as we are here in the Bay Area it is quite clear more is on the way, having been quiet for a long spell. So what remains to be seen is whether a 5er arrives and then the 6.7, or is the 6.7 just going to show up without the 5er first. I think it will be the latter, rather than the former. Does it mean if the Calavaras Fault has the 5 that the Hayward Fault will get the six? Not necessarily, but of course, one can influence the other by regional triggering, though sometimes the larger comes first and triggers the smaller event as seen in Big Bear/Landers.

I don't believe anyone knows what is going to happen in the short term, so it is really up to Mother Nature and what she decides to do. She may feel the pressure is on now to give one up, by maybe she'll hold back and give up much all at once.

I don't believe scientists know the answer because when submitted to your colleagues everyone would has an opinion of their own and most would disagree to disagree and in the end, there would still be no answer to the question. And that is why people need to learn to prepare, because no one can tell them, except perhaps Jim Berkland if he chose to use the methods on his site specific predictions which made him so successful many years ago. Or Lowell Whiteside if he was allowed to be here.

I'm certain Cal Orey could list Jim's site specific predictions here if she so desires; those were the cornerstone of his success and regardless of the rest, if he did nothing else he has a track record that has not been equalled by anyone to date.

KB has had San Simeon and Lowell Whiteside successfully predicted a 7.0 earthquake in the North Coast 30 years ago, who else has offered something worthy, oh, I forgot, it was me. But I'm just a baby in this field, so I have much to learn and I have to have time to "gear up." But I'm not going to "gear up" for California, but for places where people need earthquake prediction, on the other side of the world where 5.0 earthquakes kill people. I am hot on the trail in looking for connections and then we can see people learn how to live with earthquakes and how to be their own person warning system. Its the kind where it doesn't take a scientist to approve before it becomes useful and there is no government intervention that quells it either. Just family to family and friends to friends. Done quietly without the hoopla and whatever else goes with it.

You know, the only craziness that happens occurs on the Internet where people fry each other day and night. Out there in the real world people appreciate Jim Berkland and I was well. I don't get any strange looks when I talk to my mayor or the fire chief or my friends. I don't see any eye rolling or psychic labeling, they just "Hey, pick up the phone and call me."

The only lack of success in this regard comes from those who can and will not. Most scientists can't agree on anything and if a new discovery hits their desk they don't want to know about it because their ego will get in the way. They have got be first all of the time. Well, the public should always be first. So who forgot about them? Every person who attempts earthquake prediction gets labeled in some way or another, why is that? Everybody who does this is nuts? Yeah, right.

Now, do not think I am picking on you, because I surely am not. When I have said you, its just because I am addressing you. I do not think that you in particular are holding anything back; but perhaps the system is. So we have to ask, how many people have to die before science puts their stamp of approval on it? It sounds pedestrian. 10 equals a stop sign, anything less, you're on your own.

And by the way, is there anyway you can help Tony clarify what he saw in the field? You must have some people you could contact who might be interested in seeing this natural anomaly. This clue might be right at your feet, so how about it?

I'm feeling quite well today. I ditched the medication in favor of just being myself. Tenacious, irritating and quick to point out the little details.

Petra