EQF's prediction program
Posted by Roger Hunter on July 17, 2004 at 09:02:41:

EQF;

Here's the problem as I see it.

You believe that particular sun-moon angles can act as triggers for faults loaded to the failure point (nearly).

Let's say you are correct for the sake of argument.

You still can't predict quakes with it.

You don't know the stress state of the faults. If you did, you could predict the quake without your trigger fairly well, good enough to save lives. A trigger could only have a small effect on the timing of a quake because it's a small force added to a HUGE force, the last straw as it were.

And if the trigger pops up without the fault being fully loaded, nothing happens so your false alarm rate will destroy your credibility.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF  10:08:55 - 7/17/2004  (22173)  (1)
        ● EQF's prediction program - Roger Hunter  11:57:47 - 7/17/2004  (22178)  (1)
           ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF  01:33:50 - 7/18/2004  (22181)  (0)
     ● Re: EQF's prediction program - Don in Hollister  10:08:09 - 7/17/2004  (22172)  (2)
        ● Sorry for the interruption.. - R.Shanmugasundaram  10:56:13 - 7/17/2004  (22175)  (1)
           ● Re: Sorry for the interruption.. - EQF  01:33:44 - 7/18/2004  (22180)  (0)
        ● Re: EQF's prediction program - EQF  10:19:13 - 7/17/2004  (22174)  (1)
           ● Then write a paper and prove it - John Vidale  11:05:04 - 7/17/2004  (22177)  (1)
              ● Re: Then write a paper and prove it - EQF  01:33:32 - 7/18/2004  (22179)  (1)
                 ● you just wrote as many words as a Nature paper - John Vidale  03:53:23 - 7/18/2004  (22182)  (0)