Re: EQF's prediction program
Posted by EQF on July 18, 2004 at 01:33:50:

Hi again Roger,

That Data.html Web page at my Web site is the closest thing that I can produce which matches the type of data table you outlined. The main table contains signal dates and information regarding which past earthquakes matched each signal. I actually have many more data which I myself work with. But there are physical and time limits etc. regarding what can be made available at a Web site. To compensate for that I have a downloadable computer program at my Web site which people can use to generate other types of information.

All of the information that a serious scientist would need to evaluate this forecasting method and also generate forecasts using this technology can be found at that site. I can also provide people with additional data upon request. The data at the site are in a somewhat compressed form and you have to learn how to interpret them. This is something that I myself am in the process of doing. There is a learning curve here. But I am already well past the point where I am certain that with some earthquakes that forecasting procedure produces excellent results.

What I have said in the past and will say again is that credibility is really not the issue here. It is a problem with a lack of interest. If you yourself told people that you could write computer programs without providing any evidence of that then they might respond that they believed you simply because you said that. But they would also say, “Who cares.” However if you told them that you had created a device which generated and responded to certain types of radio waves which indicated that you were standing over a location where there was buried gold then even without providing any proof you would have people around the world begging you to take their money in return for some stock in your company. If you did actually have such a device then they could get a tremendous return on their investment. There is a sufficient interest in such a profit that they would be willing to take a chance even though you had no credibility.

It is the same thing with earthquake forecasting technology. The people who make the major decisions here on all sides of the political fence say, “If we take an interest in this, will it get us votes or campaign contributions for the next election?” The answer to that question is “No.” And so they are not interested in the subject matter.

These are personal opinions.