Hi Roger. This is what I have been saying all along. GeoForcasters has the same problem. Using their program I can give you the most probable location (within 35 miles) and the most probable time. However I can't give you the magnitude because I don't know the amount of strain for any given area on any given fault with the exceptions of the Bay Area, San Juan Bautista, Parkfield, Long Valley, and Southern California. Even then it is still a guessing game.

You can see the stain build up but you don't know how close, or how large the quake will be as you only have one data site recording it. I saw the strain build up for the San Simeon quake, but I didn't know if it was for a small quake near by, or a larger quake further away.

Without knowing how much strain there is at any given point and how much is required to break the fault it will be next to impossible to predict a major quake. Take Care…Don in creepy town