Re: Is Southern California Going To Have A Major Quake Soon?
Posted by Don in Hollister on April 15, 2004 at 11:04:03:

Hi Todd. This report spells out the affected areas. Keep in mind that the prediction is for an M>6.4 quake minimum. Take Care¡­Don in creepy town

Report to the Director, Governor¡¯s Office of Emergency Services
By the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council
March 2, 2004

The Governors Office of Emergency Services requested that the California Earthquake
Prediction Evaluation Council meet to evaluate an earthquake prediction proposed by Dr.
Vladimir Keilis-Borok and colleagues. The Council met on February 20, 2004.

The prediction is for a magnitude 6.4 or greater earthquake to occur on or before
September 5, 2004, within a 12,440 sq. miles area of southern California that includes
portions of the eastern Mojave Desert, Coachella Valley, Imperial Valley (San
Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial Counties) and eastern San Diego County (Figure 1).
The area of the southern California prediction includes a number of very active faults,
including the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault, the southern portion of the San
Jacinto fault, the Imperial fault, and a portion of the Elsinore fault. Based on the geologic
recurrence rates and the dates of previous earthquakes, earth scientists generally agree
that both the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault and the Anza segment of the
San Jacinto fault are areas where large earthquakes are likely in the near future (1995
report of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities). The area is one of
the most seismically active in the state. It includes the recent Landers (M7.3) and Hector
Mine (M7.1) earthquakes, which continue to have significant aftershock activity. There
were 8 earthquakes with M¡Ý6.4 in the area of the southern California prediction during
the last 60 years of the 20th century. The probability of a M¡Ý6.4 earthquake occurring in
a random 9-month period is thus estimated to be about 10% (see Technical Note1,
below).

Just in case the link doesn't take.

http://www.oes.ca.gov/Operational/OESHome.nsf/PDF/CEPECkbReport/$file/CEPEC_KB-Report_3-2-4.pdf



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Is Southern California Going To Have A Major Quake Soon? - Todd  13:23:16 - 4/15/2004  (21533)  (1)
        ● Re: Is Southern California Going To Have A Major Quake Soon? - Don in Hollister  13:54:26 - 4/15/2004  (21534)  (1)
           ● Re: Is Southern California Going To Have A Major Quake Soon? - Canie  08:45:38 - 4/16/2004  (21538)  (1)
              ● Re: Is Southern California Going To Have A Major Quake Soon? - chris in suburbia  16:00:11 - 4/18/2004  (21548)  (1)
                 ● not quite - John Vidale  18:11:26 - 4/18/2004  (21553)  (1)
                    ● Re: not quite - chris in suburbia  08:46:03 - 4/19/2004  (21559)  (1)
                       ● there was some prior work - John Vidale  10:42:10 - 4/19/2004  (21560)  (1)
                          ● Re: there was some prior work - Cathryn  22:20:39 - 4/22/2004  (21583)  (1)
                             ● Sylmar quake - John Vidale  22:11:00 - 4/23/2004  (21594)  (1)
                                ● Re: Sylmar quake - Cathryn  13:59:42 - 4/24/2004  (21611)  (1)
                                   ● SM mountains - John Vidale  09:01:59 - 4/26/2004  (21623)  (0)