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Re: Is Southern California Going To Have A Major Quake Soon?
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Posted by Don in Hollister on April 15, 2004 at 11:04:03:
Hi Todd. This report spells out the affected areas. Keep in mind that the prediction is for an M>6.4 quake minimum. Take Care¡Don in creepy town Report to the Director, Governor¡¯s Office of Emergency Services By the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council March 2, 2004 The Governors Office of Emergency Services requested that the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council meet to evaluate an earthquake prediction proposed by Dr. Vladimir Keilis-Borok and colleagues. The Council met on February 20, 2004. The prediction is for a magnitude 6.4 or greater earthquake to occur on or before September 5, 2004, within a 12,440 sq. miles area of southern California that includes portions of the eastern Mojave Desert, Coachella Valley, Imperial Valley (San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial Counties) and eastern San Diego County (Figure 1). The area of the southern California prediction includes a number of very active faults, including the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault, the southern portion of the San Jacinto fault, the Imperial fault, and a portion of the Elsinore fault. Based on the geologic recurrence rates and the dates of previous earthquakes, earth scientists generally agree that both the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault and the Anza segment of the San Jacinto fault are areas where large earthquakes are likely in the near future (1995 report of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities). The area is one of the most seismically active in the state. It includes the recent Landers (M7.3) and Hector Mine (M7.1) earthquakes, which continue to have significant aftershock activity. There were 8 earthquakes with M¡Ý6.4 in the area of the southern California prediction during the last 60 years of the 20th century. The probability of a M¡Ý6.4 earthquake occurring in a random 9-month period is thus estimated to be about 10% (see Technical Note1, below). Just in case the link doesn't take. http://www.oes.ca.gov/Operational/OESHome.nsf/PDF/CEPECkbReport/$file/CEPEC_KB-Report_3-2-4.pdf
Follow Ups:
● Re: Is Southern California Going To Have A Major Quake Soon? - Todd 13:23:16 - 4/15/2004 (21533) (1)
● Re: Is Southern California Going To Have A Major Quake Soon? - Don in Hollister 13:54:26 - 4/15/2004 (21534) (1)
● Re: Is Southern California Going To Have A Major Quake Soon? - Canie 08:45:38 - 4/16/2004 (21538) (1)
● Re: Is Southern California Going To Have A Major Quake Soon? - chris in suburbia 16:00:11 - 4/18/2004 (21548) (1)
● not quite - John Vidale 18:11:26 - 4/18/2004 (21553) (1)
● Re: not quite - chris in suburbia 08:46:03 - 4/19/2004 (21559) (1)
● there was some prior work - John Vidale 10:42:10 - 4/19/2004 (21560) (1)
● Re: there was some prior work - Cathryn 22:20:39 - 4/22/2004 (21583) (1)
● Sylmar quake - John Vidale 22:11:00 - 4/23/2004 (21594) (1)
● Re: Sylmar quake - Cathryn 13:59:42 - 4/24/2004 (21611) (1)
● SM mountains - John Vidale 09:01:59 - 4/26/2004 (21623) (0)
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