Hello Roger,
You are too concise for me-can you explain in some detail? How many quakes a day are you getting, and how many days after a flare are you looking at? And, explain Chi-square a little-thanks.
I was curious how complete your M5 catalogue is, being suspicious because some of your M8 quakes did not have aftershocks over 5 in the first day (not possible). So, I went to the web site that is linked below, and figures from that that there are 1473 M5 and larger quakes a year (note that, those of you who are predicting M5s over large areas and claiming success...). Your total is 11233 days=~31 years, and a little higher rate, 1528/yr....so, your catalogue must be pretty complete. Maybe the graph you made is biased because the largest flares are during times of active sun, so that the number of quakes for the whole 30 day interval is shifted to high.....
Chris