I have been waiting patiently for probably several years to get permission to discuss the following. And I finally received permission to do that late last week.

This information represents my own opinions. At the moment I cannot propose exactly how accurate it is.

Working with United Nations earthquake forecasting personnel in New York and in the People’s Republic of China and volunteers in their own country, the Philippines government now has a fully operational earthquake forecasting program. Information regarding it can be found at the following Internet location:

UNGP-IPASD Crustal Stress for Community Awareness Network in Philippines
http://www.globalwatch.org/ungp/cscan_summary.htm

Also, earlier today I posted a note to the sci.geo.earthquakes Newsgroup regarding the program.

It is my understanding that it presently relies primarily on crustal stress measuring devices which were originally developed by researchers in the People’s Republic of China. The devices are placed in holes which are dug something like 40 meters into the ground and then sealed with cement. Installations are located at strategic sites across the Philippines. Triangulation procedures can be used with data collected from multiple sites in order to tell where an expected earthquake might be about to occur.

One of the important things about that program is the fact that it will now hopefully forever lay to rest the question, “Can earthquakes be predicted?” There is a government now trying to predict them. It is one which is regarded as having a fairly open society. And I expect that we may actually be hearing about some of their successes and failures.

That program could also be quite important to earthquake forecasters around the world including me. As far as I am aware, before now no formal organization has ever existed which was interested in our forecasts. I do not believe that at this time researchers in that country are sufficiently well organized that they would be able to evaluate and react to large amounts of forecasting data sent to them by other people. But I am hoping that they will soon develop an ability to effectively merge at least some data from outside sources with their own.

• UNGP-IPASD Crustal Stress for Community Awareness Network in Philippines