Re: Philippines earthquake forecasting program Feb. 27, 2002
Posted by EQF on February 27, 2002 at 20:42:51:

As you are certainly aware there are a number of forecasting groups in Greece as well.

It is not enough to simply spend a lot of money on earthquake forecasting programs. You also need a good sense of direction. I believe that researchers in the People's Republic of China are probably headed in the right direction. But I myself have found it be almost impossible to communicate with them. Forecasters in the Philippines look to me like they could also be successful. Hopefully, it will be easier for us to learn about how they are doing.

Consider the following:

One person posts regular forecasts to this bulletin board. And you apparently feel that they can be quite accurate. I myself will take your word for that. This is a public bulletin board which as far as I am aware can be visited by anyone on Earth who can visit Web sites including government officials everywhere. Have you ever heard of any government forecaster or government official working for any country asking that person how he generates forecasts or offering to purchase some of them or his procedure from him? I feel that they should at least check on such things. And that does not appear to me to be happening. Most governments do not appear to me to have a good sense of direction when it comes to moving in productive directions regarding earthquake forecasting.

Consider also all of the destructive earthquakes which have occurred during the past few years. Do you know of even one case outside of the People’s Republic of China where a government formally claimed that its forecasters were able to save lives with a timely forecast.

It is easy to spend money. It does not appear to be so easy to spend it wisely.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Philippines earthquake forecasting program Feb. 27, 2002 - Lowell  21:53:45 - 2/27/2002  (13346)  (1)
        ● Re: Philippines earthquake forecasting program Feb. 27, 2002 - Don In Hollister  00:10:59 - 2/28/2002  (13348)  (0)
     ● Re: Philippines earthquake forecasting program Feb. 27, 2002 - Petra Challus  20:51:14 - 2/27/2002  (13340)  (1)
        ● Re: Philippines earthquake forecasting program Feb. 27, 2002 - EQF  21:46:54 - 2/27/2002  (13344)  (1)
           ● Wrong Game - Petra Challus  23:01:51 - 2/27/2002  (13347)  (1)
              ● Re: Wrong Game-not always - Canie  07:29:53 - 2/28/2002  (13350)  (0)