Alas and woe, if you want people to prepare, you've got to hype. Sorry, but that is the case. People don't pay attention if they are not concerned. I don't believe in scaring people to death---but believe me, the level of ignorance in the general population regarding quakes (and science in general, for that matter!) is stunning. A certain level of disbelief and denial is nomal---and probably necessary for every day functioning. But the reality is that people don't want to face real risks unless they have to do so.

We live in a world where many more people can name their favorite person on American Idol, or the batting average of somebody in the National League, but can't name their Congressman.

We have been amazingly fortunate in the last 150 years in quake occurrence. The big quakes of 1857, 1872 and 1906 have not happened again. The smaller quakes in urban areas (Santa Barbara, 1925, and Long Beach 1933) have also NOT happened. If they do, the damage and casualties will be much greater than in the past.

As for 100,000 casualties...I do not think that excessive if a large quake occurs on an average business day on the Inglewood, Whittier Narrows or Elysian Faults. Perhaps not in deaths, but definitely in injuries and subsequent possible incidents. LA is now a densely populated, culturally varied area, very dependent upon imported water and traveling vast distances on the freeways to get to jobs, school, recreation, etc. Fire hazard is extreme at times. If the water supplies are disrupted, disease will follow.

I think that it is better to be prepared...if people go to bed worrying about earthquakes (at least occasionally) they might notice that book case over their bed, or the fact that their apartment is over an open, unreinforced garage...or that they don't have any water or food stored up, etc. etc. etc. Getting human beings to face reality is a challenge, but it is better to be prepared.

But don't mind me---I live at the base of an active volcano.