Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8)
Posted by Lowell on May 08, 2001 at 10:41:29:

We have on record an excellent prediction for the Montana earthquake which
occurred this morning with Ml 3.8. Since members of this board are interested
in earthquake prediction, I thought I might share this with you so you can see
some of the precision a good earthquake forecast might have. While off in time
by 6 days all other parameters were quite precise. Because of privacy matters
and the desire of this/these predictor(s) to remain anonymous, I cannot share
the source of this prediction with you at this time, sorry about that.

A mild (Ml=3.8) earthquake occurred in southwestern Montana/Eastern
Idaho this morning. This event was the largest within 100 km of it's epicenter
since 1998. The magnitude and location paramters of this earthquake
were precisely predicted as follows:

Source parameters of the occurring event:

08MAY2001 10:20:11 44.80N 112.77W ML=3.8 MBMG Red Rock Valley, MT; Felt
08May2001 10:20:11 44.8 N 112.8 W ML=3.8 NEIS EASTERN IDAHO

Prediction (made by e-mail March 27, 2000)
14May2001 44.8N 112.8W 3.5-4.5 West of Yellowstone, MT
Follow-up prediction (made by e-mail Oct. 10, 2000 by same predictor(s))
14May2001 44.8N 112.8W 3.0-4.0 Montana, USA

These predictor(s) claim their forecast should be correct within 6 days, +/- 30 km
latitude and longitude and within magnitude limits and geographical location stated.

Looks like some earthquakes can be predicted after all.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - michael  09:35:52 - 5/9/2001  (7489)  (2)
        ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Lowell  14:28:48 - 5/9/2001  (7494)  (1)
           ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Canie  17:05:32 - 5/10/2001  (7496)  (2)
              ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Lowell  17:13:29 - 5/11/2001  (7503)  (1)
                 ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Canie  10:33:31 - 5/14/2001  (7524)  (1)
                    ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Lowell  16:46:14 - 5/14/2001  (7526)  (0)
              ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Lowell  17:08:41 - 5/11/2001  (7502)  (0)
        ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Lowell  13:52:53 - 5/9/2001  (7492)  (0)
     ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Petra Challus  12:30:03 - 5/8/2001  (7469)  (1)
        ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Lowell  13:05:20 - 5/8/2001  (7470)  (2)
           ● Ml 3.5 near Kanosh, Utah Today - Lowell  13:57:54 - 5/9/2001  (7493)  (0)
           ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Canie  16:23:28 - 5/8/2001  (7476)  (0)