Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8)
Posted by Lowell on May 09, 2001 at 14:28:48:

Hi Michael,
I am walking a bit of a tightrope here. I don't want to seem evasive in answering
your question, but still have to stay within the rules that we set down when we
accepted predictions here at NGDC. I can tell you that the same predictor(s)
also had a prediction for Unimak Islands at this time. Since this prediction does
not go into the folder until tomorrow, it is still available fore discussion.

The prediction was:

May 11 2001 +/- 2 days
Location: Unimak Island Alaska
Epicenter: 54.1N 162.8W +/- 100 km.
Mb 4.5-6.0

You can compare this with the following event listed by NGDC for Unimak Island
today:
09May2001 15:47:35.9 54.0N 164.3W 33 MB=5.6 M NEI UNIMAK ISL REGION, ALASKA
I believe the prediction meets all criteria (although distance is just barely in range).

For background the last earthquake within 150 km of this epicenter occurred
in November, 2000. The last earthquake in this area larger than this occurred
on Oct 13, 1999 (Mb 6.1). Three earthquakes larger than this have occurred in
the area in the past 6 years.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Canie  17:05:32 - 5/10/2001  (7496)  (2)
        ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Lowell  17:13:29 - 5/11/2001  (7503)  (1)
           ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Canie  10:33:31 - 5/14/2001  (7524)  (1)
              ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Lowell  16:46:14 - 5/14/2001  (7526)  (0)
        ● Re: Good prediction for Montana this morning (Ml=3.8) - Lowell  17:08:41 - 5/11/2001  (7502)  (0)