New to this board, maybe I shouldn't be adding my opinion but I can't help myself.

It is my opinion that since the world is a living thing, it is impossible to calculate probability. It is an ever changing thing and therefore probability is of no value.

People here seem to be adults and if you simply post the data, people can figure out for themselves who's predictions to give weight to. In an extreme example, if I predict an M5.5 worldwide for one week, don't you think that people can figure out for themselves that this was likely. The calculation of probability can be altered to various results and therefore subjective.

As for your suggestion of magnitude leeway, this makes sense. I'd say that even though people may pick up on precursors and know an event is on the way, in most cases, the magnitude is a guess. To help build confidence in prediction and to give credit where credit is due, your suggestion would be a benefit. Although I don't envy you in trying to determine where and when to give leeway.