Hi again Roger. Thank you for responding.

Even with differences in measurement, at least one of the four events listed in the previous post should have made the >M4 list, shouldn't they?

Some of my previous post was cut off. Don't know why, but I'll try to remember what I was saying.

I have a list of locations from USGS data, and even though they don't post all events worldwide, trends do show up. It is a slightly different kind of probability, but still related to probability. Using just a few weeks data, I was able to accurately predict one event so far in my notes. The location was big and the magnitude only in the M5 range, but it was within a 26 hour window. I'll continue to work on this and look for further trends. If a few more accurate predictions can be made, I'll get the confidence to begin to post the predictions. This looks to me like it already has some potential but only for the average size events. If you have access to more data, maybe you could determine the most likely place and time for a large event.

I am using probability after seeing the same events ocurr in one place that seem to follow another. It might actually work for some events but will be of very limited value unless the large ones can be located.

Yes it would be a huge task to check a lot of locations for probability. The prize is much better than the one for using your skills to judge people. Maybe you can prove that no one is better than chance, then what?