Forcast by Martin is for a 3+ within 48 hours of his post within 15 miles of Pinnacles NM, CA. Latitude/Longitude was centered on the center of Pinnacles NM, CA.

This is my first crack at an analysis, so any comments and suggestions, as always, are welcome.

Lat: -121.128
Lat: 36.213
Start of Window: 01/02/2001 18:32:52 PST
End of Window: 01/02/2003 18:32:52 PST
Mag: 3+
Radius: 15 Miles (24.15 Kilometers)

I looked at the NEIC catalog for a 25 year period from 1975 through 2000. There were 4 earthquakes that fit these parameters.

Based on that information, I deduced that there is about a 1 in 1141 chance of a hit by random chance. This translates to a .087% chance of occurance. A hit with this prediction would be very impressive indeed!

Thoughts?