Way back in 1994 and 1995 I had been posting predictions on ca.earthquakes and then sci.geo.earthquakes when it came into being. Like you Michael, Northridge caught my attention.

In January 1995, Alan offered to evaluate predictions being posted on SGE (short for sci.geo.earthquakes) and a discussion evolved on how best to do this using the various methods of statistical evaluation. Because of the way earthquakes cluster, the method Alan uses was agreed to by most participants in the discussion.

As to your last question, I'll wait for awhile as I'm still working on some things and I'm not ready for that yet. I've had a lot of changes made over the last year.

Dennis