Hi EQF,

Five years ago I was in your camp, but today, thankfully I'm not anymore. I have to say that I have provided my own time and my own expense to get out and know scientists personally. I've been there with them, had them tell me how they feel about prediction, its pros and cons and I've also heard them tell me how much they do care. There is no apathy in the science community. Let us remember, they have family and friends and they know better than almost anyone what the results from a moderate to significant earthquake can be.

As for politics, this is an odd word really, because it is not really politics that separates prediction from occurring, but the form of acceptance within geo-sciences that this can or cannot be accomplished. There are very high stakes for anyone who wants to go there. I know I would not risk my job and be black balled for the rest of my days if it meant I wanted to try. I don't think you would either.

As for ear tones, this program will never be accepted because it cannot be proven. No one can prove that someone is hearing something they cannot hear themselves. Then there is the matter of accepting that ear tones are a precursor to earthquakes. How can they accept that? In demonstration it can be a little, but not enough. I do it just because I've figured out how most of the time it works.

Now as for the real sense of politics, if it were not for politicians, today the work I'm doing to see water heaters in rental unit being retrofitted would not be possible. There is a path and we have to follow it to gain results and it is this way in all matters of life.

On this board pretty much Don and I have been the only two people who have posted predictions on a somewhat regular basis. I have no computer programs that do anything except a calculator and a site that measures mileage as the crow flies. For Don though he did receive some information, it was up to him to make the call and he did it based on his research, not something that was handed to him to post as given. He doesn't have a computer program for this either. He just uses an earthquake catalog.

Sometimes Don and I work together. I'll get an ear tone and he may help me define the where, draw the catalogs for me and give me suggestions for magnitude ranges. It makes it fun to work with someone. But that's really it, it is just fun to see if you can do something that everyone says cannot be done.

I absolutely love people to tell me something cannot be done and then do it. It gives me great pleasure. Its like a contest.

When your time is right, you'll know it is and make your predictions public, just to show you can do it. If you try to make it more like a game instead of high stakes of life, I think you may feel less stressed about it and present the challenge to yourself to see if you actually can do it. Make it fun, not work. Or work that you love.

Petra