Hi EQF,

I don't really like to do this, but I'm going to use a cut and paste on your message because I think you hit some important issues in your message.

(1) The government of the People’s Republic of China has apparently had a program in place for years for evacuating cities when forecasters conclude that an earthquake might be about to occur near one. And I understand that it has been successfully used at least once and probably on a number of occasions to save large numbers of lives.

> There was only one evacuation. There were several predictions for the same area though.

Question: If they can do this in a country which many consider to be a developing nation, why can’t it be done in technologically advanced nations such as the U.S.?

> Because we are so densely populated and earthquake prediction has not been proven to be successful beyond random chance that no one would wish to do this at this point in time. Zero degree of accurary is the cause.

(2) Setting aside the matter of evacuating cities, if you talk with senior representatives of any of a number of disaster mitigation groups as I have over the years they will state emphatically that if you can just provide them with some fairly reliable information regarding when they need to get prepared to respond to a highly destructive earthquake then that advance notice can save them some response time. And saved response time days, hours, and even minutes can be translated into saved lives.

They don’t need to know exactly where or even when the earthquake is going to occur. Just stating that it is likely to occur in some undetermined location in some country can be invaluable information. For example, it will enable them to save time by getting the entry visas secured for their disaster response personnel.

> I'm sorry, but they do need to know where and when this expected earthquake may arrive. You cannot ask rescue personnel to place their equipment outside for months at a time and finally give up and the day they put the fire trucks back in the stalls in the day the quake arrives. Leaving rescue units outside for any period of time places those units in harms way from vandalism and weather related problems. If earthquake prediction does not reach the level where a date (window), location within a short radius and magnitude is known, then no one should be warning anyone.

Give it a try and see if I am correct on this. Get in contact with a senior official at any major disaster mitigation group (which not part of some government agency) and ask him or her that question.

> I didn't become known in Petaluma as the Earthquake Lady because I never talked to anyone about preparedness. The fire chief, now retired told me if I had a significant ear tone to call him and he would take his trucks out of the fire station. Fortunately, I never had reason to ask him to do this, but the willingness was there.

I am not aware of any earthquake mitigation group that is not related to the government in one form or fashion, but in particular who does not receive government funding. If you know of one, please provide the name and I'll be willing to contact them directly.

Petra