Hi EDG,

Don't mistake me. I would like to tell a story, which is very famous in Tamilnadu
called "Elephant and Blind Men". A group of blind people whom willing to see an elephant.
One day the chance occurred and every one touched the elephant on its different parts
and came to different opinions among them like elephant is like 'Ural' i.e. like a big
barrel explained by one who touched elephant's leg, elephant is like 'Muram' i.e. like
a big plate for collecting dust, the other said it is like 'big pot' who touched the
elephant's stomach and another one said it is like a 'stick covering with hair' who
touched the tail of the elephant. From our point of view no one can understand properly
about the actual figure of an elephant.

Quake prediction is similar one felt by experts since they are felt different precursors
on their way. Hence no one can arrive and emerge a solution for quake forecasting so far.
Somebody tells this quake is daughter of the year 1847 and sister of the year 1734 and
other tells quake forecast under probability calculations and some other collecting sediment
of layers under the sea, also seeing clouds, hearing sounds and watching fish etc.etc.

I am not telling that I am an expert. But you must agree that more than 70% cases are
successful in my forecast since you are watching my website. According to me every
quake is fresh quake and has got it's own feet. Its emerges to the ground level whenever
it reaches its maximum stress and triggered by an external or internal forces. Its emits
respective signal individually, but we are unable to deduct and confusing with many
such signals received simultaneously. Accordingly I bifurcate the signals and published
in my website. For example, after a few days I got bright
Sunshine yesterday and I have find out only one precursor that pertains to
around Tajikistan area, say around 37.7N 73.2E, and I published the same. It occurred at:

2003/01/12 08:12:16.1 36.7N 70.7E 220 Mb4.7 M GSSC HINDU KUSH, AFGHANISTAN, REG

i.e. around 13.42 IST say around 4 hours in advance. Though my method was commented
as 'crude' and not involving much technology, I challenge which satellite and GPS system
warned this quake in advance and that too at least with this accuracy? I agreed I have not
mention the magnitude this time since it involving continuous sunshine days. But I am
satisfied with a pencil, a wall did this prediction.

As you said, forecasting of quakes is not getting priority at this time, no problem EDG,
be ready with lot of blankets, food items, tents, bulk quantity of drugs, huge transportation
facility, trained dogs, sanitation, donations, neighbor countries help etc, etc, and of course
with our deep sorrow for the victims too.

Elephant and Blind Men

SHAN
13\1\2003

• Alert..Earthquake