2 cents,

If I remember correct during March 2002, I gave prediction on Hindkush
region and it came successfully. Many people in this board were appreciating
my work except Roger. What Roger arguing that it must be published in a
particular site where he is referring the results. Also he is making some
probability calculation which I don't understand. Though the results of my
predictions were published in EMSC / ASC / REDPUMA / USGS he is not evaluating
on the basis of these reports. I don't know why peoples are considering him as
final authority for evaluation process. Of course he may be enormous knowledge
about history of seismic activities, but I suspect his knowledge in predicting
earthquakes and welcoming new ideas in this field.

I agreed that,

"Scientific earthquake predictions should state where, when, how big,
and how probable the predicted event is, and why the prediction is made."

In my prediction I am giving the location with + or - 3 degrees accuracy.
I am mentioning the time frame is within 48 to 130 hours beginning from 10 AM
Indian Standard Time (IST). Usually the probability around 75% is definite.
Also I am fixing the Magnitude like 4 to 5 M or around 5.5M etc., after evaluating
the reading registered. Sometimes I am combining a few quakes having different magnitude
like 3 to 5.5M in the same report. So far I am satisfying with my report and results
thereon. Since the earth movement is changing frequently hence the prediction is made.

With the help of a clock, wall and with a pencil I am fulfilling the above needs.
I will do wonders, if more such observatories to be opened. I am welcoming any suggestion
in making the prediction report in such a way that to understand by people still better.

Turkey was silence in complying some of basic formalities. But they are watching my site
regularly than any other countries.

I am not teaching literature but speaking science and I request you try to
understand my points.

SHAN
16/1/2003
(Puliyampatti)

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