Re: Elephant and Blind Men
Posted by R.Shanmugasundaram on January 21, 2003 at 10:40:01:


Hi 2 cents,

Happy to note your points and I would like to give the following
suggestions:

I would like to emphasize here that how meteorologist analysing a depression
over sea and following the movement of its cyclone through satellite, the
earth movement and subsequent quake movement could also be noted by way of
opening more observatories and hence whatever prediction is made by me at
present with only one observatory, is involving loss of information to some
extent. It equally reflects in the evaluation process too. So again we enter
into 'Elephant and Blind Men' story.

Those who are understand about the precursors which is derived from this
method thoroughly, can only give their expert opinion. This method is developed
indigenously so that the present way of evaluation may not applicable to this
method but at the same time it is able to give quake forecasts regularly.

Even with lack of infrastructure facility at my end, suppose if the results
are satisfied at least 25% now, it is a great achievement for me since I have
to do the remaining 75% of work is not yet touched and think about the final
output. Even though I am posting such forecasts with much confident since many
of the results are came true regularly and that too is not available in any
other forecast sites. (But it is different story that the present seismology
measuring the magnitude, epicenter, depth, Primary, Secondary wave movement &
that too in 3 dimensions. But all AFTER an earthquake - of course ended with
data collection of counting death toll year-wise.)

Anybody can access my prediction page freely / regularly and start to evaluate
at any point of time. Searching set of my old predictions and evaluation for
the same may not be interested now and hence I request to start evaluate directly
from my web page. f you have any discussion and suggestions including how to post
the pattern of predications / results thereon etc., are always welcome.

Since I am confident about the method and willing to stand long, I don't want to
do skeptic activity like alter the website after an earthquake. Anyone can copy
my web page and report in this forum openly if any such malpractice/s found out.
But as I said in my web page itself that the forecasts are made at the neck of
the hour before rushing to my Bank. So some spelling mistakes may occur which
subsequently rectified. Also, depending upon the earth movement on the next day
of prediction, if I noticed any change and would like to announce the same I will
make the correction with a letter (R) - means "Revised".


SHAN
22/1/2003