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Re: Elephant and Blind Men
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Posted by R.Shanmugasundaram on January 21, 2003 at 10:40:01:
Hi 2 cents, Happy to note your points and I would like to give the following suggestions: I would like to emphasize here that how meteorologist analysing a depression over sea and following the movement of its cyclone through satellite, the earth movement and subsequent quake movement could also be noted by way of opening more observatories and hence whatever prediction is made by me at present with only one observatory, is involving loss of information to some extent. It equally reflects in the evaluation process too. So again we enter into 'Elephant and Blind Men' story. Those who are understand about the precursors which is derived from this method thoroughly, can only give their expert opinion. This method is developed indigenously so that the present way of evaluation may not applicable to this method but at the same time it is able to give quake forecasts regularly. Even with lack of infrastructure facility at my end, suppose if the results are satisfied at least 25% now, it is a great achievement for me since I have to do the remaining 75% of work is not yet touched and think about the final output. Even though I am posting such forecasts with much confident since many of the results are came true regularly and that too is not available in any other forecast sites. (But it is different story that the present seismology measuring the magnitude, epicenter, depth, Primary, Secondary wave movement & that too in 3 dimensions. But all AFTER an earthquake - of course ended with data collection of counting death toll year-wise.) Anybody can access my prediction page freely / regularly and start to evaluate at any point of time. Searching set of my old predictions and evaluation for the same may not be interested now and hence I request to start evaluate directly from my web page. f you have any discussion and suggestions including how to post the pattern of predications / results thereon etc., are always welcome. Since I am confident about the method and willing to stand long, I don't want to do skeptic activity like alter the website after an earthquake. Anyone can copy my web page and report in this forum openly if any such malpractice/s found out. But as I said in my web page itself that the forecasts are made at the neck of the hour before rushing to my Bank. So some spelling mistakes may occur which subsequently rectified. Also, depending upon the earth movement on the next day of prediction, if I noticed any change and would like to announce the same I will make the correction with a letter (R) - means "Revised". SHAN 22/1/2003
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