While board members have been discussing the usefulness of Shan's Hindu Kush
forecast for Apr 3-8 a new Ms 6.0 hit there this morning. This is 4 days late but about
the right place.
Still, I am not very impressed. Aftershocks of this magnitude are quite common in
the region and Shan has had three separate forecasts for the Hindu Kush region
in the past 20 days - one made March 15, the next March 24 and the last April 3. It's
hard to miss if you keep predicting for the same place over and over again, sooner
or later an aftershock comes by and a hit can be claimed.
There has to be some accountability for the misses in any evaluation schema as
well as credits for the hits, otherwise I could predict a 6 for California every day
and eventually be right, taking home the laurels on the basis of the one prediction
that was correct while letting the others die a quiet death.

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