Lots of activity in the California region today, and most of in areas
where Don had earthquake forecasts for. So here is an update on today's
events compared with Don's forecasts:

NCSN listed the following events today:

FORECAST 1:
O: 7DEC2001 4:20:46 38.9N 122.4W ML=2.7 NCSN E of Lower Lake, CA
O: 7DEC2001 4:19:50 38.9N 122.4W ML=2.9 NCSN E of Lower Lake, CA
P: 10-14DEC 40 km 38.6N 122.3W 2.6-3.6 St. Helena, CA
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11605.html

FORECAST 2:
O: 7DEC2001 2:08:58 36.9N 121.6W ML=2.2 NCSN WNW of San Juan Bautista, CA
P: 26-30NOV 40 km 36.8N 121.5W 2.5-3.5 San Juan Bautista, CA
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11175.html

FORECAST 3:
O: 7DEC2001 1:02:22 38.3N 122.3W ML=2.9 NCSN SW of Napa, CA
P: 05-09DEC 40 km 38.4N 122.4W 2.5-3.5 Yountville, CA
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11511.html

FORECAST 4:
O: 06DEC2001 10:41:49 37.2N 121.6W ML=3.2 NCSN N of Morgan Hill, CA
P: 07-11DEC 40 km 37.5N 121.6W 2.8-4.0 Livermore, CA
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11518.html

FORECAST 5:
O: 07DEC2001 00:58:09 35.6N 118.3W ML=2.4 SCSN ESE of Lake Isabella, CA
P: 05-09DEC 40 km 35.6N 118.5W 2.5-3.5 Lake Isabella, CA
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11510.html

Notes on these forecasts:

Forecast 1: St. Helena/Lower Lake, Northern California

The forecast and prediction are separated by 34 km, within the
forecast 40 km range. The magnitude of both events also is within
the forecast magnitude range, however, the events occurred 3 days
earlier than the forecast time window.
There have been 9 8-day periods in the past two years during which
an event matching the forecast parameters has occurred. In the same
period there have been 91 8-day periods. The probability of random success
are therefore 9/91 = 0.1 or odds of about 1 in 10 for a successful
forecast within an 8-day period for this region.

Forecast 2: San Juan Bautista

This is not a particularly good match between forecast and earthquake.
Although the event falls within the expected distance range, the magnitude
is out of range by 0.3 units and the earthquake occurs
7 days later than expected. We investigate the odds of random success
of a forecast with a 12-day window and magnitude 2.2-3.5 within the
expected radius. In the past year there have been 30 12-day periods
of which 29 have contained a successful event. Odds of a successulf
prediction using such a window are virtually guaranteed. The forecast
would be a totally useless success.

Forecast 3: Yountville/Napa

This is the second light earthquake to occur in this region since
December 3 - see the forecast evaluation posted yesterday for
evaluation of the first of these (a Ml 2.8 on Dec. 3).

Event occurred within magnitude and distance window, and on the
day expected. In the past year there have been three events
in this region which matched the expected parameters of this
earthquake. Odds of a random success are therefore about 1 in 24.
A completely successful forecast.

Forecast 4: Morgan Hill/Livermore

The event falls within 25 km of Don's forecast epicenter and is in
the middle of the forecast magnitude range. It is, however slightly
more than half a day earlier than expected.

Probability:

Since December 1998, there have been 17 six-day periods during
which an event matching Don's forecast parameters has occurred.
In the same time there have been 182 such 6-day time frames. The
probability of random success is thus 17/182 = 0.09 or odds of
about 1 in 11 for success with this forecast in a six-day time
window. This is the largest earthquake in this area since a Ml 4.0
on Feb. 25, 2001, three days before the Nisqually, WA Ms 6.8 earthquake.

Forecast 5: Lake Isabella

The event falls on the day expected and within the magnitude and
distance range forecast.

Probability:
In the past year there have been 73 5-day windows of which 14 have
contained an event with the parameters described in the forecast.
The odds of random success are therefore about 1 in 5.

A completely successful forecast.