Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better
Posted by Roger Hunter on October 25, 2013 at 15:05:53:

Amit;

Here's how you did with mag 6.5+ quake predictions

----------------------------------------------------------
350 mag 6.5+ quakes
Odds are .2967 for a mag 6.5+ quake in a 3 day window.
226 Amit predictions.
68 Amit hits.
Expected hits = 226 * .2967 = 67


Number of random hits in 5 increment groups
    5    10    15    20    25    30    35    40    45    50 
    0     0     0     0     0     0     0     5    86  1083 
   55    60    65    70    75    80    85    90    95   100 
 6816 21025 32075 25584 10700  2333   274    19     0     0 
-----------------------------------------------------------

You will notice that the peak in random predictions is a bit lower than the expected value but that your score and the expected score are together in that next group.

This may be due to the limitations of the random number generator, which are never perfect.

I'm glad you understand my motives. I'm not "out to get" anyone.

The Jones method is designed to eliminate clusters as much as possible so as to give a more correct overall probability. If we calculate the probability of a given number of quakes in a window, your success would be much lower because the clusters are not that frequent. What Jones gives us is the odds on a date hit of one or more quakes and that's what you are predicting.

Roger

Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better - Amit  02:58:38 - 10/26/2013  (101178)  (1)
        ● Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better - Roger Hunter  08:09:36 - 10/26/2013  (101179)  (1)
           ● Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better - Skywise  16:30:23 - 10/26/2013  (101180)  (1)
              ● Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better - Roger Hunter  00:36:59 - 10/27/2013  (101181)  (1)
                 ● Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better - Amit  03:53:37 - 10/27/2013  (101182)  (1)
                    ● Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better - Skywise  04:39:56 - 10/27/2013  (101183)  (1)
                       ● Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better - Amit  06:53:20 - 10/27/2013  (101184)  (1)
                          ● Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better - Roger Hunter  09:05:19 - 10/27/2013  (101185)  (1)
                             ● Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better - Amit  10:44:35 - 10/27/2013  (101186)  (2)
                                ● Re: Yet another 6.5+ date hit; this should look better - Skywise  16:30:29 - 10/27/2013  (101189)  (0)
                                ● Re: File requested - Roger Hunter  14:27:06 - 10/27/2013  (101188)  (1)
                                   ● Re: File requested - Amit  22:48:00 - 10/27/2013  (101192)  (1)
                                      ● Re: File requested - Amit  10:31:30 - 10/28/2013  (101194)  (1)
                                         ● Re: File requested - Amit  10:51:00 - 10/28/2013  (101195)  (1)
                                            ● Re: File requested - Amit  12:30:11 - 10/28/2013  (101196)  (1)
                                               ● Re: File requested - Amit  12:41:16 - 10/28/2013  (101197)  (1)
                                                  ● Re: File requested - Roger Hunter  13:37:38 - 10/28/2013  (101198)  (1)
                                                     ● Re: File requested - Roger Hunter  15:27:47 - 10/28/2013  (101199)  (0)