Roger
As per your evaluation in past several years I have predicted 193 ,6+ quakes and out of that ,there are 135 hits (with 3 day window)- which is marginally more than odds
few things to state here
1) It is good enough to beat the odds for 6+ quake predictions over several years of consistent predictions.135 hits out of 193 predictions is good ,as per my understanding .
2) Odds takes in to account all quakes ie aftershocks at same place also besides taking clusters in account.so odds are always high
3)If these are true odds 5 out of 10 should be able to reach with their random dates. I doubt even one in ten can reach odds with random dates
Amit