Some Forecast Details – November 11, 2012

Okay. The researcher who sent me that forecast gave me permission to release some details, but not his or her or their name(s).

And once again as Roger and others will undoubtedly object,

It is critically important that information like this get circulated even after an earthquake has occurred. If it is not then no one will know if any progress is being made.

He (that researcher or she or they) believe that the Myanmar earthquake is likely the one that was expected.

2012/11/11 01:12:38 23.01N 95.88E 10 6.8 52km NNE of Shwebo, Myanmar
NEIS Data

The forecast was for an earthquake in an area of about 250 to 300 km radius around 24 N and 93 E that was showing very high Total Electron Content (TEC).

The latitude that I was originally given was exact. But the expected longitude that I was given actually covered a small range centered around 93 E.

The TEC activity started around September 21, 2012 and continued for almost 5 weeks. It started fading out around November 5, 2012. And that is regarded as a sign that the earthquake could occur fairly soon.

The earthquake’s expected Time Window was from November 5, 2012 to November 19, 2012.

The expected magnitude was in the range 6.5 to 7.0.

In summary, I would say that based on the accuracy of that forecast, TEC looks like it might be able at times to provide us with some amazingly accurate forecast information. And I have offered to store some data related to that forecaster(s) research on one of my Web sites. There are already quite a few data there related to Dr. Pavel Kalenda and colleagues’ ground tilt sensor based forecasting method.

http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Research-PK.html

I also have permission to store another earthquake researcher’s data there. But I have not yet had time to format it.

These are personal opinions.