An interesting question has arisen on Syzygy. JOB wants to use an archery target method of scoring, with a bullseye distance of 2 degrees for a full hit and near miss rings 10% larger (each) with a 10% reduction in value for each ring.

The question is regarding the 10%. I say that's too small.

My first thought was to compare areas, but the probability for the rings is not the full circle because of the bullseye area. Subtracting out the bullseye gives the area of the first ring but that doesn't seem right for a probability because the ring covers such a wide span, making the probability higher than a similar sized circle alone.

Or so I think anyway!

Anybody have any ideas? Lowell? MIchael?

I suspect area is not the answer but rather it should be observed probability ala Jones. So much depends on where the center is and what the rings intersect....

Roger