Its a tought, tough subject these 'near misses' - the bullseye doesn't work better than any other type of method.

When you say 2 degrees are you talking longitude/latitude degrees? 10% for being off 2 full degrees? Isn't that something like roughly 140 miles off and get 90%? I guess it depends on how/what you are predicting - get a 70% for being 420 miles off? - gee - nearly the distance from LA to SF...

I would have to think anyone predicting a quake for the la area and one hits san francisco would be scoring a miss...They obviously should get some credit for seeing something but its time to refine those techniques...

Canie