Hi Lowell:

Below is attached a message I posted a few months back. It was an attempt to create some sort of exponentially decaying function for near hits. The idea was a predictor predicted a mag, place, and time, and a score was generated based on the mag predicted as it applied to distance and time. Whatever eq in the mag, time, place range that produced the largest score is considered the closest 'hit'. The larger the eq predicted, the more time and space you had to score points.

It does have flaws, and would need some tweaking, but I thing it is a much better starting place that arbitrary bullseyes.

What would you propose as a solution to the "Near Hits" problem?

Michael

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Hi All.

I've come up with a prediction evaluation/scoring proposal for your perusal. Based on a prediction for a specific magnitude at a specific place at a specific time, the predictor would receive points bases on the schedule below. Distance, Time, and Magnitude ranges are base on the predicted magnitude, and are therefore naturally logarithmic. For example, for a predicted 6.7, you would receive points for and EQ:

Within 812 Km of the predicted location
Within 162.4 Days of the predicted Time
Within a magnitude of 2 of the predicted 6.7, or 4.7-8.7 would get points.

For example, for a predicted 3.0, you would receive points for and EQ:

Within 20 Km of the predicted location
Within 4 Days of the predicted Time
Within a magnitude of 2 of the predicted 3.0, or 1.0-5.0 would get points.

Of course, the closer you were to your prediction for a given parameter. the more points you would get. Points would drop off in a logarithmic fashion from the point, time, mag of the prediction to a point of zero at the far end of the range for the given parameter for the given predicted magnitude.

With regards to the time range, points would be given for EQs within +- a time range for a prediction. No "postdicting" will be allowed. The prediction post time will become the starting time range for the predicted EQ, but will not have an impact on any point value for EQs occurring after the posted time.

Background random occurance would also be listed with any scores, giving further value to the prediction.

Comments?

================== table of ranges ===============
2 Within 7 Km +- 1.4 Days +- 2 Mb
2.1 Within 8 Km +- 1.6 Days +- 2 Mb
2.2 Within 9 Km +- 1.8 Days +- 2 Mb
2.3 Within 9 Km +- 1.9 Days +- 2 Mb
2.4 Within 11 Km +- 2.2 Days +- 2 Mb
2.5 Within 12 Km +- 2.4 Days +- 2 Mb
2.6 Within 13 Km +- 2.6 Days +- 2 Mb
2.7 Within 14 Km +- 2.9 Days +- 2 Mb
2.8 Within 16 Km +- 3.2 Days +- 2 Mb
2.9 Within 18 Km +- 3.6 Days +- 2 Mb
3 Within 20 Km +- 4 Days +- 2 Mb
3.1 Within 22 Km +- 4.4 Days +- 2 Mb
3.2 Within 24 Km +- 4.9 Days +- 2 Mb
3.3 Within 27 Km +- 5.4 Days +- 2 Mb
3.4 Within 29 Km +- 5.9 Days +- 2 Mb
3.5 Within 33 Km +- 6.6 Days +- 2 Mb
3.6 Within 36 Km +- 7.3 Days +- 2 Mb
3.7 Within 40 Km +- 8 Days +- 2 Mb
3.8 Within 44 Km +- 8.9 Days +- 2 Mb
3.9 Within 49 Km +- 9.8 Days +- 2 Mb
4 Within 54 Km +- 10.9 Days +- 2 Mb
4.1 Within 60 Km +- 12 Days +- 2 Mb
4.2 Within 66 Km +- 13.3 Days +- 2 Mb
4.3 Within 73 Km +- 14.7 Days +- 2 Mb
4.4 Within 81 Km +- 16.2 Days +- 2 Mb
4.5 Within 90 Km +- 18 Days +- 2 Mb
4.6 Within 99 Km +- 19.8 Days +- 2 Mb
4.7 Within 109 Km +- 21.9 Days +- 2 Mb
4.8 Within 121 Km +- 24.3 Days +- 2 Mb
4.9 Within 134 Km +- 26.8 Days +- 2 Mb
5 Within 148 Km +- 29.6 Days +- 2 Mb
5.1 Within 164 Km +- 32.8 Days +- 2 Mb
5.2 Within 181 Km +- 36.2 Days +- 2 Mb
5.3 Within 200 Km +- 40 Days +- 2 Mb
5.4 Within 221 Km +- 44.2 Days +- 2 Mb
5.5 Within 244 Km +- 48.9 Days +- 2 Mb
5.6 Within 270 Km +- 54 Days +- 2 Mb
5.7 Within 298 Km +- 59.7 Days +- 2 Mb
5.8 Within 330 Km +- 66 Days +- 2 Mb
5.9 Within 365 Km +- 73 Days +- 2 Mb
6 Within 403 Km +- 80.6 Days +- 2 Mb
6.1 Within 445 Km +- 89.1 Days +- 2 Mb
6.2 Within 492 Km +- 98.5 Days +- 2 Mb
6.3 Within 544 Km +- 108.9 Days +- 2 Mb
6.4 Within 601 Km +- 120.3 Days +- 2 Mb
6.5 Within 665 Km +- 133 Days +- 2 Mb
6.6 Within 735 Km +- 147 Days +- 2 Mb
6.7 Within 812 Km +- 162.4 Days +- 2 Mb
6.8 Within 897 Km +- 179.5 Days +- 2 Mb
6.9 Within 992 Km +- 198.4 Days +- 2 Mb
7 Within 1096 Km +- 219.3 Days +- 2 Mb
7.1 Within 1211 Km +- 242.3 Days +- 2 Mb
7.2 Within 1339 Km +- 267.8 Days +- 2 Mb
7.3 Within 1480 Km +- 296 Days +- 2 Mb
7.4 Within 1635 Km +- 327.1 Days +- 2 Mb
7.5 Within 1808 Km +- 361.6 Days +- 2 Mb
7.6 Within 1998 Km +- 399.6 Days +- 2 Mb
7.7 Within 2208 Km +- 441.6 Days +- 2 Mb
7.8 Within 2440 Km +- 488.1 Days +- 2 Mb
7.9 Within 2697 Km +- 539.4 Days +- 2 Mb
8 Within 2980 Km +- 596.1 Days +- 2 Mb
8.1 Within 3294 Km +- 658.8 Days +- 2 Mb
8.2 Within 3640 Km +- 728.1 Days +- 2 Mb
8.3 Within 4023 Km +- 804.7 Days +- 2 Mb
8.4 Within 4447 Km +- 889.4 Days +- 2 Mb
8.5 Within 4914 Km +- 982.9 Days +- 2 Mb
8.6 Within 5431 Km +- 1086.3 Days +- 2 Mb
8.7 Within 6002 Km +- 1200.5 Days +- 2 Mb
8.8 Within 6634 Km +- 1326.8 Days +- 2 Mb
8.9 Within 7331 Km +- 1466.3 Days +- 2 Mb