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Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method |
Michael; Every user will have a different idea on this so here are mine. I would prefer one line formats as in Excel spreadsheets for ease in computer reading. Consistency is vitally important, otherwise I have to edit by hand which can introduce errors. For online access, the ability to sort and select is important. The user may normally want to see all predictions by a given individual but another user may want to see all predictions for a particular area or a certain time or even a certain magnitude range. The probability was originally intended to be the predictor's calculation of the chances of the quake happening. Others have used it as a measure of their confidence in the prediction which always struck me as odd. Why would you even make a prediction if you weren't sure of it? In any case, I make my own calculation as it's a critical part of determining significance. Roger Follow Ups: ● Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method - Michael Tolchard 14:19:18 - 3/11/2009 (74843) (1) ● Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method - Roger Hunter 14:45:44 - 3/11/2009 (74846) (2) ● Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard 01:51:50 - 3/12/2009 (74852) (1) ● Re: Possible Parameters - Roger Hunter 06:45:08 - 3/12/2009 (74854) (1) ● Re: Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard 09:45:03 - 3/12/2009 (74855) (2) ● Time Zone Issues - Michael Tolchard 11:19:02 - 3/12/2009 (74862) (0) ● Re: Possible Parameters - Roger Hunter 10:35:19 - 3/12/2009 (74860) (2) ● Re: Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard 11:26:46 - 3/12/2009 (74863) (1) ● Re: Possible Parameters - Roger Hunter 11:48:51 - 3/12/2009 (74864) (1) ● Re: Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard 12:00:44 - 3/12/2009 (74865) (1) ● Re: Possible Parameters - Roger Hunter 12:20:59 - 3/12/2009 (74867) (2) ● Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Michael Tolchard 13:43:27 - 3/12/2009 (74870) (1) ● Re: Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Roger Hunter 14:46:25 - 3/12/2009 (74872) (1) ● Re: Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Michael Tolchard 15:23:10 - 3/12/2009 (74874) (1) ● Re: Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Michael Tolchard 15:24:19 - 3/12/2009 (74875) (1) ● Re: Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Roger Hunter 15:49:52 - 3/12/2009 (74877) (1) ● Re: Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Michael Tolchard 16:06:37 - 3/12/2009 (74878) (0) ● Re: Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard 13:30:53 - 3/12/2009 (74869) (0) ● Re: Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard 10:58:19 - 3/12/2009 (74861) (0) ● Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method - Michael Tolchard 14:58:20 - 3/11/2009 (74848) (0) |
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