Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method
Posted by Roger Hunter on March 10, 2009 at 07:49:46:

Michael;

Every user will have a different idea on this so here are mine.

I would prefer one line formats as in Excel spreadsheets for ease in computer reading. Consistency is vitally important, otherwise I have to edit by hand which can introduce errors.

For online access, the ability to sort and select is important. The user may normally want to see all predictions by a given individual but another user may want to see all predictions for a particular area or a certain time or even a certain magnitude range.

The probability was originally intended to be the predictor's calculation of the chances of the quake happening. Others have used it as a measure of their confidence in the prediction which always struck me as odd. Why would you even make a prediction if you weren't sure of it? In any case, I make my own calculation as it's a critical part of determining significance.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method - Michael Tolchard  14:19:18 - 3/11/2009  (74843)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method - Roger Hunter  14:45:44 - 3/11/2009  (74846)  (2)
           ● Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard  01:51:50 - 3/12/2009  (74852)  (1)
              ● Re: Possible Parameters - Roger Hunter  06:45:08 - 3/12/2009  (74854)  (1)
                 ● Re: Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard  09:45:03 - 3/12/2009  (74855)  (2)
                    ● Time Zone Issues - Michael Tolchard  11:19:02 - 3/12/2009  (74862)  (0)
                    ● Re: Possible Parameters - Roger Hunter  10:35:19 - 3/12/2009  (74860)  (2)
                       ● Re: Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard  11:26:46 - 3/12/2009  (74863)  (1)
                          ● Re: Possible Parameters - Roger Hunter  11:48:51 - 3/12/2009  (74864)  (1)
                             ● Re: Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard  12:00:44 - 3/12/2009  (74865)  (1)
                                ● Re: Possible Parameters - Roger Hunter  12:20:59 - 3/12/2009  (74867)  (2)
                                   ● Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Michael Tolchard  13:43:27 - 3/12/2009  (74870)  (1)
                                      ● Re: Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Roger Hunter  14:46:25 - 3/12/2009  (74872)  (1)
                                         ● Re: Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Michael Tolchard  15:23:10 - 3/12/2009  (74874)  (1)
                                            ● Re: Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Michael Tolchard  15:24:19 - 3/12/2009  (74875)  (1)
                                               ● Re: Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Roger Hunter  15:49:52 - 3/12/2009  (74877)  (1)
                                                  ● Re: Flinn-Engdahl Regions - Michael Tolchard  16:06:37 - 3/12/2009  (74878)  (0)
                                   ● Re: Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard  13:30:53 - 3/12/2009  (74869)  (0)
                       ● Re: Possible Parameters - Michael Tolchard  10:58:19 - 3/12/2009  (74861)  (0)
           ● Re: Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts, Percentages, and the Scientific Method - Michael Tolchard  14:58:20 - 3/11/2009  (74848)  (0)