Chris;

Possibly an error in what I'm comparing to what.

I didn't restrict the dates on the syzygy and perigee files so the total counts are wrong but that doesn't matter to the hit/miss numbers. The centennial catalog runs from 1900-2007 so when I use that as the acceptable range I find 2672 syzygies of which 217 are supermoons. But still only 60 hits out of 1729 quakes.

if we say 60 hits out of 217 supermoons, that's 27.6% where the odds on a hit in any 6 day window is 22.1%.

That sounds better but is it correct? I'm not sure.

Roger